Each week, we take a look at the SP+, a projection model by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, predicting the final score of every game in college football. It’s a pretty accurate model, but has incorrectly picked West Virginia’s game each of the past two weeks.
A couple of weeks ago, it had the Mountaineers losing to Virginia 30-20, and of course, WVU won that one 38-27. Last week, it had West Virginia taking down Oklahoma State 28-26, but instead, the Cowboys pulled off the upset, winning 41-24.
SP+’s prediction good news for West Virginia in Week 5?
If the trend continues for a third straight week, the Mountaineers will get back in the win column. The SP+ projects Iowa State to defeat West Virginia by a 29-24 score. It also gives the Cyclones a 61% chance to win the game, which is very close to what the ESPN Football Power Index matchup predictor is giving them.
I’ll admit, this is a game that West Virginia can lose. It’s the first time this season this team has had to deal with adversity, and it’s also the first time they’ll be playing a true road game, having to deal with a hostile environment. Because we don’t know how they will respond to those two situations, it can lead to some uneasy feelings heading into this one. Not to mention, Jack Trice Stadium is not Acrisure Stadium or a neutral-site matchup like the one with Virginia in Charlotte. Their fans show up, pack out the place, and make it one of the most challenging venues the Big 12 Conference has to offer.
Keys to the Game for West Virginia
Offense: More balance
West Virginia needs to spin it a little bit more, and by doing so, it should make life a lot easier on Cam Cook and Mike Hawkins Jr. in the run game.
Defense: Shut Flora down
Iowa State wants to run the ball, just like WVU. Running back Aiden Flora has been tough to tackle, getting 80% of his yards AFTER contact. If they are able to stuff the run, it should be a HUGE advantage for the Mountaineers
Special Teams: Don’t allow the big play to happen
The Cyclones have already returned a kickoff and a punt for a touchdown. WVU kicker Jack Cassidy has a high touchback percentage, so he will need to boot that thing through the end zone as much as possible, and Bryan Hansen has to make sure he doesn’t outkick his coverage on punts.
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