If you’re looking to take down an NFL DFS tournament, you’ll likely need to mix in players who aren’t heavily rostered to differentiate your lineups from the field. Entering Week 4, fantasy football managers have a 12-game NFL DFS main slate to decipher.
Based on players’ salaries and matchups on FanDuel and DraftKings, here are the top five underrated NFL DFS GPP (guaranteed prize pool) plays for Week 4.
All stats used in this article are from PFF or Sumer Sports unless stated otherwise. Offensive and defensive EPA and success rate metrics are courtesy of rbsdm.com.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans ($7,000 FD/$5,700 DK) vs. DAL
Sunday’s matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans is expected to be one of the highest-scoring environments in Week 4. With the Texans lacking an effective rushing attack, they are 13th in neutral pass rate (54.9%), and C.J. Stroud benefits from facing a shaky Cowboys pass defense.
Across the first three weeks, Dallas’ defense is 31st in dropback EPA (0.41) and 32nd in dropback success rate (58.9%) allowed.
Jacoby Brissett, QB, Arizona Cardinals ($6,800 FD/$5,000 DK) at NYG
Jacoby Brissett produced a season-high 25.6 points on FanDuel and DraftKings in Week 3 against the San Francisco 49ers, and he’ll take on the New York Giants in Week 4. New York’s defense is 27th in dropback EPA (0.24) and 22nd in dropback success rate (49.6%) allowed.
Of the 24 QBs with 100-plus plays to start the season, Brissett is 11th in adjusted EPA/play (0.14), 9th in success rate (49.3%), and 9th in completion percentage over expected (CPOE; +3.8%).
Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals ($6,200 FD/$5,500 DK) at NYG
Stacking Michael Wilson with Brissett is certainly viable in Week 4 after Wilson brought in 11 of his 17 (!!!) targets en route to scoring a season-high 20.4 points on FanDuel and 25.9 points on DraftKings in Week 3. Although Wilson’s 1.36 yards per route run isn’t ideal, he has the second-highest target share (27.2%) on the Arizona Cardinals, only behind Trey McBride.
The Giants have surrendered the 14th-most fantasy points per game to WRs (29.1) in the first three weeks of the new campaign.
Mack Hollins, WR, New England Patriots ($5,700 FD/$4,000 DK) at BUF
Mack Hollins could potentially be a salary-saving wideout in Week 4, as the New England Patriots are expected to play from behind and the Buffalo Bills’ defense has been susceptible to the pass. While the Patriots’ aerial attack has been woeful so far, Hollins paces the team in target share (19.5%), and he’s posting the 19th-most yards per route run (2.17) among WRs with 15-plus targets.
In addition to giving up the 6th-most fantasy points per game to WRs (32.1), the Bills’ defense is 24th in dropback EPA (0.17) and dropback success rate (50.0%) allowed.
Kenyon Sadiq, TE, New York Jets ($5,300 FD/$4,000 DK) at CHI
Rookie Kenyon Sadiq exploded for a season-high 23 FanDuel points and 26.5 DraftKings points in Week 3 against the Detroit Lions. Of the 29 TEs with 10-plus targets, Sadiq has the sixth-most yards per reception (11.9), fourth-highest route rate (90.8%), and fifth-most yards per route run (2.42).
With Adonai Mitchell potentially sidelined for a second straight week, Sadiq could be busy again in Week 4 for the New York Jets
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