Wildland fire activity in Canada ramped up in July 2026, a time of year when lightning ignitions typically increase, according to a seasonal outlook published by several North American fire agencies. The blazes sent smoke plumes pouring across the U.S. and Canada, affecting air quality in both countries.
This animation tracks brown carbon, the organic aerosols emitted by fires that give smoke plumes their characteristic yellow, orange, and brown tint. Brown carbon is a major component of a fire’s PM2.5 emissions, a type of air pollution that can aggravate cardiovascular and respiratory conditions. Here, the plume drifts across North American skies from July 14 through July 20, 2026.
Data for the animation come from a version of the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) model, which assimilates data from satellites, aircraft, and ground-based observing systems. In addition to satellite observations of aerosols and fires, the model also incorporates meteorological data such as air temperature, moisture, and winds to project the plume’s behavior.
On July 14, at the start of the animation, numerous fires had already cropped up, including more than 180 in Ontario and several in northern Minnesota. Winds carried the smoke southeast, and by July 15, skies turned hazy and air quality declined from southern Ontario in Canada to the Upper Midwest and Northeast in the U.S. July 16 and 17 saw air quality in many areas continue to plummet, including in Detroit, where it stayed in the hazardous range for several consecutive days. Toronto, Chicago, New York City, and Washington, D.C., saw air quality ranging from unhealthy to hazardous.
On July 19 and 20, smoke continued to affect air quality downwind, including in the Great Lakes region, according to the National Weather Service. Storms began clearing it away in parts of the East, where air quality improved to good or moderate. Meanwhile, fires in the Pacific Northwest began degrading air quality there.
The brown carbon shown in this animation represents organic carbon that comes specifically from wildfire smoke. Wildfires also emit black carbon, or soot, which contributes to their PM2.5 output. Black carbon has long served as a tracer for smoke plumes, but human sources—such as vehicle exhaust and industrial combustion—produce it too, blending in with the black carbon from fires. The GEOS model has been able to make that distinction for brown carbon since February 2026, when an update enabled it to split organic carbon into its anthropogenic and biomass-burning components.
NASA Earth Observatory animation by Lauren Dauphin, using GEOS-FP data from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA GSFC. Story by Kathryn Hansen.
References & Resources
- The Conversation (2026, July 16) Yes, breathing wildfire smoke can harm your health – here’s what you can do to protect yourself. Accessed July 21, 2026.
- NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (2026, February 19) Splitting Anthropogenic and Biomass Burning Sources of Organic Carbon in GOCART-2G. Accessed July 21, 2026.
- NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio (2026, July 20) Long-range Transport of 2026 Canadian Wildfire Smoke into the United States (July 14-20, 2026). Accessed July 21, 2026.
- National Interagency Fire Center, Natural Resources Canada, and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (2026, July 14) North American Seasonal Fire Assessment and Outlook. Accessed July 21, 2026.
- The New York Times (2026, July 19) When Will the Wildfire Smoke Clear? Accessed July 21, 2026.
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2026, July 14-20) AirNow: Interactive Map of Air Quality. Accessed July 21, 2026.
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