GREEN BAY, Wis. – Coming off last week’s embarrassing loss to the Falcons, the Green Bay Packers desperately need a win on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
In a sign that desperate times lead to desperate measures, the Packers signed veteran guards Laken Tomlinson and Kevin Zeitler this week to cover up for their enormous mistakes in building their offensive line.
How will that group handle the pressure brought by the winless Buccaneers, who might be even more desperate than the Packers?
Perhaps not well, which is a reason why they will suffer a crushing loss in sweltering Tampa Bay.
1. It’s Not the Heat …
As the saying goes, it’s not the heat, it’s the humidity. The kickoff forecast is obscene. At 1 p.m. Eastern, it’s supposed to be 89 degrees with a real-feel of 104 because of the humidity, according to AccuWeather. There’s a 50 percent chance of rain during the second half, with the temperature inching past 90.
The Packers don’t have much experience with these hellish conditions. Dating to the start of the Brett Favre era, the Packers have played only four road games with a kickoff temperature of 88 or hotter. That includes two games during the Matt LaFleur era. The Packers beat the Buccaneers 14-12 in 2022 and lost to the Buccaneers 38-10 in 2020.
All-time, the Packers are 3-8 at Raymond James Stadium. They are 1-3 when it’s hotter than 80 at kickoff.
“It’s a switch up, man, especially from being up here,” slot defender Javon Bullard said. “But I train in Florida, Georgia, Texas, so I’m always down South. It’s a challenge. It’s definitely a challenge because you talk about when your wind goes out, that’s when a lot of technique goes out. That’s when your brain stops to function, for real.
“Honestly, you try to catch your breath, you missing out on opportunities. So, I think that’s a challenge for us but we got to embrace it.”
The weather will pose a big challenge for the Packers, who might be relying on new guards Laken Tomlinson and Kevin Zeitler, neither of whom had a training camp so might not be in peak physical condition, and will be shorthanded at defensive tackle without Warren Brinson and Anthony Campbell.
For an added bonus, air quality will be poor.
2. Nowhere to Run
Last week against the best run defense in the NFL, the Packers basically admitted defeat before the game began.
Facing Atlanta’s stout defense, the Packers gave the ball to their running backs eight times. In the first quarter, which ended with a 7-7 score, the play-calling consisted of 12 passes and three runs. In the second quarter, when the Packers had two possessions when the score was 7-7 or 10-7, it was seven passes and two runs.
Immediately after the game and throughout the week, coach Matt LaFleur spoke of the need to run the ball more.
“I think that’s one of the things whether you’re a running back, quarterback, D-lineman, you’ve got to allow guys to get into a rhythm,” he said. “And, certainly, if you run the ball nine times, it’s hard for them to do that. …
“Not every run has to be an explosive gain. Sometimes, you’ve just got to go hit it and get 3 yards, and it’s 3 yards and a cloud of dust just to stay on schedule and set yourself up for some more manageable third downs.”
Judging by his comments throughout the week, it seems clear the Packers are going to want to come out of the gates trying to establish their running game. But will they have any success?
Atlanta is first in the NFL with 47.7 rushing yards allowed per game and 2.75 yards allowed per carry. Tampa Bay is second with 76.0 rushing yards allowed per game and 3.12 yards allowed per carry.
At this point, the Packers might celebrate finishing a game with 76.0 rushing yards. They’ve rushed for 66, 63 and 17 yards in the three games with a league-worst 3.02-yard average. It’s early, obviously, but they are on pace to field the worst rushing attack in NFL history.
“They’re really good against the run. Really physical front. They play with a lot of guys in the box,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said of the Bucs.
The run defense starts with defensive tackle Vita Vea, who is listed at 6-foot-4 and 347 pounds. Will the Packers be able to move him in order to improve upon their 31st-ranked 3.0-yard rushing average on first down?
“You don’t have that many humans that big that can move and throw people around like that,” new right guard Kevin Zeitler said. “There’s the giant monsters in the league and he has his own special place there.”
LaFleur said the Bucs’ run defense starts with Vea.
“He’s a big human, but it’s not just him,” he said. “They do a great job with their edge setters, and the linebackers are physical. The secondary will punish you, as well. So, I think collectively, just all 11 do a really good job.”
The Packers are running the ball just 26.6 percent of the time – by far the lowest rate in the league (the Steelers are at 33.8 percent). That’s just not the basis of LaFleur’s offense; they were fifth in 2025 and third in 2024.
Because of a running game that’s been equal parts forgotten and ineffective, the Packers on third down have thrown 35 passes vs. only one run. Talks about one-sided and predictable.
“We always talk about having a complementary offense,” quarterback Jordan Love said. “Being able to lean on the run game is going to take some of the pressure off some of the pass protection and not let the D-line know we’re in pass situations. It’s something that we’ve got to improve. We can’t have a game where we have nine rushes and to that we’ve got to improve in the run game.”
3. Desperate Times, Desperate Measures
The Buccaneers are 0-3. Their coach, Todd Bowles, is on the hottest of hot seats.
Bowles isn’t a stupid coach, though. He’s seen the Packers’ season-long struggles in picking up blitzes and stunts.
He also knows the Packers will be counting on either struggling linemen or new linemen to pick up those blitzers. It’s likely to be the team’s fourth starting combination in as many games.
Because of porous pass protection, quarterback Jordan Love has taken a beating. Love has been sacked and hit a combined 38 times, according to Sumer Sports, which is the most in the NFL. And because he’s taken a beating, he’s been skittish in the pocket.
Bowles loves to blitz. Depending on whose data you look at, the Buccaneers are either second or third in blitz rate. So, even under ordinary circumstances, Bowles was going to be in attack mode against the Packers. In these extraordinary circumstances, Bowles is likely to crank up his level of aggressiveness.
“I’ve played them before,” one of those new linemen, Kevin Zeitler, said on Friday. “They’re extremely talented, great D-line depth. Obviously, head coach is a blitz monster.”
Last week, the Falcons tormented Love. Of his 55 dropbacks, he was under pressure on 25. The Falcons didn’t really blitz him, though. They got through with a variety of twists and stunts that the Packers failed to handle. He was blitzed 10 times, going 3-of-10 for 15 yards.
The not-so-simple starting point for the Packers will be figuring out who’s rushing and having blockers get in their way – a mission they failed at last week.
“Definitely. Playing quarterback, obviously, you always need time,” Love said. “The more time you have, the better you’re able to pick apart the defense and find those completions. That’s with anything, you always want time. Obviously, there’s times you might not have time; you’ve got to find those answers.
“That’s an area that we’ve got to improve on, is in pass pro just making sure we’re going to the right people and sustaining blocks for as long as we can, give me some time to pick the defense apart and obviously something that we need to improve on.”
Going to the “right people” would be a good start in giving Love a chance at making Bowles’ defense pay, because Love has done well against the blitz. According to Sumer Sports, he’s been pressured on 50.9 percent of opponent blitzes, which is about the middle of the pack, but has a 96.0 passer rating when blitzed.
So, the key for the Packers will be giving Love the time necessary to make plays. He’s capable, but only when he’s on his feet.
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