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As I’ve done over the past few years, I’ll

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Week 5 FCS Football Preview & Predictions

As I’ve done over the past few years, I’ll preview the biggest games of the weekend and give my official predictions. Let’s keep this season going and preview the biggest Week 5 games from across the FCS landscape.

2026 Prediction Record: 63-17
2022-25 Prediction Record: 540-175 (75.5%)

No. 19 Northern Arizona at No. 12 Idaho State

Storylines to Watch: The Lumberjacks desperately need this win if they want to remain relevant in the Big Sky race. This will be their 3rd consecutive game and they host Montana next weekend in another massive conference battle. There’s no room for error, especially if NAU wants to find itself on the right side of the playoff bubble, unlike last season.

Idaho State enters this game with a ton of momentum. They survived a tricky road trip to Southern Utah and currently sit just outside the Top 10 at 4-0, including an FBS win over Utah State. It’s been a different recipe for the Bengals this season. They’ve actually leaned on their defense, which could be a real signal that they are ready to make a postseason run.

Matchup to Watch: Idaho State’s Passing Game vs. Northern Arizona’s Secondary

The Lumberjacks will be without Deliyon Freeman, who suffered a broken ankle last week against Montana State. It’s a big loss for the Lumberjacks, who have struggled to stop the pass most of the season. Northern Arizona’s passing defense ranks 11th in the Big Sky, allowing 279.6 yards per game, but they do rank 1st in the Big Sky with 7 INTs in five games.

Idaho State enters the weekend with the No. 1 passing attack in the Big Sky, averaging nearly 300 yards per game and 9.3 yards per attempt. Jordan Cooke is having an outstanding season, throwing for 1,011 yards, 10 TDs, and only 2 INTs. The Lumberjacks also have to deal with Chedon James, who leads the Bengals with 310 receiving yards and 4 TDs, averaging 18.2 yards per reception.

X-Factor: Ty Pennington (Northern Arizona, QB)

Pennington had a slow start to the season, but has really found his rhythm over the past two games. When he’s at his best, Pennington is one of the best quarterbacks in FCS football. As good as Idaho State’s defense has been, they haven’t stopped the run very well, allowing 5.0 yards per carry. They’ve allowed over 200 rushing yards in 3 of their 4 games.

I think that’s important because Pennington has the ability to be a real factor in the plus-one run game. We saw it last week against Montana State, rushing for 72 yards on 11 carries. It was the first time all season that the Lumberjacks really utilized Pennington’s legs. Going back to 2024, Pennington had 437 yards and 7 TDs, which is something that I would like to see the Lumberjacks bring back against Idaho State this weekend.

Prediction: Idaho State (34-27)

No. 8 Youngstown State at No. 21 Southern Illinois

Storylines to Watch: This is an important data point for determining whether Southern Illinois is a real factor in the MVFC race. The Salukis suffered a tough loss to West Florida in Week 0, but have since gone 3-0 against FCS competition. The level of competition is questionable, which makes this their toughest test of the year.

Some of that recent success can be tied to the return of DJ Williams, who is coming off an All-American season in 2025. He was injured against the Argos, but has played fairly well since returning against SEMO. We haven’t seen him use his legs over the past two weeks, but I would expect Nick Hill to unleash Williams against this Youngstown State defense.

The Penguins have a ton of momentum after an impressive win over South Dakota. I was extremely impressed by how this team responded after facing some adversity in a loss to South Dakota State, especially against one of the hottest teams in the FCS. On the other hand, this will be Youngstown State’s third consecutive Top 25 matchups. Does that have any impact on the Penguins? It’ll be something to watch this weekend in Carbondale.

Matchup to Watch: Beau Brungard vs. Southern Illinois Defense

In Week 0, the Salukis had no answer for West Florida quarterback Ty’Ray Davis and the plus-one run game. The Argos were able to roll up over 220 yards, which included nearly 100 from Davis, whether it was designed runs or scrambles on broken plays.

Since then, the Salukis have held FCS opponents to 72.3 rushing yards per game. None of those teams have a dynamic quarterback, so how much of SIU’s success is linked to some overmatched opponents with average quarterback play? We’ll have our answer this weekend, because Beau Brungard is going to offer a very dangerous threat with his legs.

To nobody’s surprise, Brungard is off to one of the best starts in the country once again. He’s completed 74.1% of his passes for 1,216 passing yards, 13 passing TDs, and only 2 INTs. He also leads the Penguins with 461 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs. If the Salukis can’t stop the plus-one rushing attack, it’s going to be a long day for this defense.

The Penguins have plenty of other notable weapons, including wide receiver Lynn Wyche-El, but this entire offense is centered around Brungard’s ability to make plays with his legs. It sets up almost everything else this offense wants to do. We saw SDSU take away the run with extremely aggressive defensive line play, but can the Salukis replicate that success?

Keep an eye on Ibrahim Sanogo and Amir Dwight, who have emerged as the best defensive linemen for the Salukis. Sanogo leads the team with 8.5 TFLs and 5.5 sacks, while Dwight has been a dominant force on the interior of this defensive line. The Salukis must win the defensive battle if they are going to be able to hang around in this matchup.

Prediction: Youngstown State (34-23)

No. 22 Colgate at No. 20 Harvard

Storylines to Watch: If you like offensive fireworks, this is not the game for you. This game has all the makings of a low-scoring, defensive slugfest. These are two of the best defenses in the FCS, while both of these offenses have struggled to consistently move the ball at times. It may come down to whichever team is able to put together 1-2 good drives, along with finding ways to turn scoring opportunities into touchdowns, not field goals.

Colgate running back Danny Shaban missed last week’s game against Villanova. His status for this weekend is unknown, but he’s currently not listed on the depth chart. If he’s unavailable, true freshmen O’Shea Faison and Caleb Naumann will be elevated into key roles for the Raiders. Naumann led the Raiders with 66 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD last weekend.

Matchup to Watch: Harvard’s Rushing Attack vs. Colgate’s Defense

Harvard’s offense has not been good this season. The Crimson are currently averaging only 4.1 yards per play and 280 yards per game offensively. A small step back could be expected with a new quarterback, but the absence of the run game has been a much bigger issue. Neither Cole Allen nor Xaviah Bascon has been able to generate a ton of success on the ground, which hasn’t helped Charlie Smith grow into his QB1 role.

That could be a problem against a Colgate defense that has held its four FCS opponents to 78.2 yards per game on the ground. The pass rush continues to elevate, plus they forced 10 TFLs against Villanova in Week 4. If they can create negative plays, keeping Harvard in passing situations, the Raiders could be in a really good spot to pull off the upset on the road.

X-Factor: Turnovers

Both of these defenses have been elite at forcing turnovers, which could play a massive role in who wins this game. In a low-possession, low-scoring game, each possession becomes much more valuable.

Harvard has forced 5 INTs in only two games, which is something to watch against Colgate quarterback Jake Stearney, who has thrown 6 INTs this season. Xaden Benson, Damien Henderson, and Austin-Jake Guillory form an elite defensive backfield for the Crimson, which is their biggest advantage in this matchup.

On the other side, Colgate’s defense has forced 9 INTs, all of which have come in the past four games. They’ve also done a very good job of generating pressure, which has led to some of the mistakes by opposing quarterbacks. This game could come down to whether Charlie Smith or Stearney can take care of the ball against these stingy defenses.

Prediction: Colgate (13-10)

No. 2 South Dakota State at No. 10 Illinois State

Storylines to Watch: Quarterback play is going to be questionable on both sides, especially with Chase Mason expected to miss his second consecutive game since suffering an injury against Youngstown State. This means that whichever defense is able to take away the run, forcing the opposing quarterback to win this game with their arm, will have the significant advantage.

Josh Holst has been fine since replacing Mason, but the upside of this passing attack changed drastically after Mason’s injury. In his lone start, Holst completed 50% of his passes for 176 yards and 1 TD. All he needs to do is make a handful of key throws to keep Illinois State’s defense honest and take care of the football. Just be an efficient game manager, and let the rushing attack carry this offense.

On the other side, the Redbirds cannot settle on a quarterback, but it’s clear Gage Roy looks like the most consistent option when he’s on the field. The issue is that the Redbirds have been unable to push the ball downfield. Without a consistent outside threat, the Redbirds continue to struggle when the field shrinks, which could be a massive issue against one of the best defenses in the FCS.

Matchup to Watch: South Dakota State’s Run Game vs. Illinois State’s Defense

I’m still unsure what to expect from this Illinois State rushing defense. The Redbirds have been really good this season, holding opponents to 2.8 yards per carry, but they are coming off their worst performance of the year against UNI. They allowed nearly 200 rushing yards on only 34 carries in last week’s loss. Was this an outlier? My biggest concern is that the Redbirds haven’t really been tested, which makes me think that this could be something a team like South Dakota State can take advantage of.

The Jackrabbits have one of the best rushing attacks in the FCS, averaging over 300 yards per game on 6.8 yards per carry. It starts with the offensive line, which has been elite this season, but it’s also the overall depth at running back. We’ve seen Josiah Johnson emerge as the leader of the rotation, but James Basinger and Corey Blair Jr. have the ability to take over games. All three of them are averaging over 6.5 yards per carry, including an insane 13 yards per carry from Basinger.

If the Redbirds allow SDSU’s rushing attack to control the pace of this game, I don’t see how they are going to have any chance to win this game. The key for the Redbirds is to find some sort of success on the ground with Tyler Lofton and Victor Dawson, if he returns to the field, while also finding a way to put this game on Holst’s arm. I’m just not sure if I see that happening on Saturday night.

Prediction: South Dakota State (27-13)

Quick-Hit Week 5 Predictions:

No. 7 Stephen F. Austin 31, Incarnate Word 20

Can anybody push Stephen F. Austin for the Southland championship? Incarnate Word offers a unique challenge with a dangerous offense, but the Cardinals have to take care of the ball, which has been an issue at times this season. The Lumberjacks lead the Southland Conference in sacks (21), TFLs (45), and INTs (7), which doesn’t feel like a good matchup for UIW’s offense. This SFA defense has been elite all season, but now the offense is starting to click at a high level, which is why I like the Lumberjacks to continue to roll with a big win.

No. 9 Tennessee Tech 45, Western Carolina 31

This feels like a must-win for the Catamounts in a chaotic SoCon race, but I don’t love the matchup here for an upset. Tennessee Tech brings the best passing offense in the SoCon to Cullowhee, but the Catamounts have the 2nd-worst passing defense in the conference, allowing 8.3 yards per attempt. Quarterback Jax Leatherwood and these talented Tennessee Tech wide receivers are going to have a big day, but can the Western Carolina offense keep up in a shootout? I like the Golden Eagles in a high-scoring game, but Tennessee Tech’s defense gets some key stops in the second half to secure the win.

No. 17 West Florida 17, Abilene Christian 14

The biggest question in this game is the health of Ty’ray Davis, who was injured two weeks ago against Austin Peay. The Argos struggled offensively without Davis, but this defense has been the biggest key in the 3-1 start to the season. They lead the UAC with 13 forced turnovers, including 7 INTs. This could be a major issue for an Abilene Christian offense that’s struggled to protect the football. Even with the questions around Davis, I think the Argos defense grinds out another win on the road.

No. 25 Jackson State 23, Alabama A&M 20

This may be a neutral-site matchup between the two best teams in the SWAC East. Neither team has been tested this season, but both feature solid quarterback play and strong rushing offenses. The weather isn’t projected to be good in Mobile, but I trust Jackson State to establish the run and control this game along the line of scrimmage. Nate Blount looks like an emerging star, leading the Tigers with 411 rushing yards and 4 TDs. This one will be competitive, but I trust quarterback Jared Lockhart and Blount to lead the Tigers to the win.