Before the season even began, Virginia fans already had circled this Saturday’s visit to SMU (noon, CW Network) as arguably the biggest challenge of the fall.
That fact hasn’t changed, but the difficulty level has grown after the Cavaliers’ uneven performance through the first half of the season. Any slender hopes Virginia has of returning to the ACC championship game or qualifying for a top-tier bowl hinge on pulling an upset of the 24th-ranked Mustangs, who are favored by just over a touchdown.
Here are the three biggest story lines entering Saturday’s clash:
1. Ground delivery
In its only loss this season, SMU (4-1, 2-1 ACC) allowed Louisville to rush for 265 yards and four touchdowns. In their other four games, the Mustangs have allowed a meager 111 yards per game on the ground.
It doesn’t take a Ph.D. in football to understand the implications. Virginia has an experienced offensive line, a deep running back room and a quarterback (Beau Pribula) who thrives on keepers.
Last Saturday night’s rainy comeback win over Syracuse was fueled by a fourth-quarter ground game that featured heavy doses of Jekail Middlebrook and Zay Davis. Offensive coordinator Des Kitchings, who prefers a run-heavy attack, also unveiled a few wrinkles with a couple of effective speed option calls and direct snaps to Middlebrook on his two touchdown runs.
Best of all, an effective running game would chew up the clock and keep SMU’s dangerous offense on the sideline for extended periods. Which brings us to the second story line …
2. Passing concerns
When the Mustangs were dominating the now-defunct Southwest Conference in the 1980s, they relied on the “Pony Express,” featuring star running backs Eric Dickerson and Craig James. Now, though, they feature a pass-first offense.
Kevin Jennings is the latest standout quarterback who’ll challenge Virginia’s sometimes porous defense. Through three games, he’s completed 75 percent of his passes for 1,588 yards and 14 touchdowns, with just five interceptions. Five different Mustangs have at least two TD receptions, led by tight end Theo Melin Ohrstrom with four.
Jennings will face a banged-up secondary that faced Syracuse without corner Omillio Agard and saw starters Brandyn Hillman and Jacobie Henderson leave Saturday’s game with injuries. This will be the biggest challenge yet for defensive coordinator John Rudzinski.
It would help to get a steady pass rush, but Virginia has produced just 13 sacks in six games, and SMU has allowed only six in five games. If Fisher Camac and company can’t get to Jennings, Rudzinski may have to blitz Kam Robinson and others more than he’d like, further exposing a suspect secondary.
3. Road worriers
The Cavaliers (4-2) have yet to win a game away from Scott Stadium this year, allowing 38 points to West Virginia (in Charlotte) and 38 at Florida State. The Mustangs, meanwhile, are 8-1 in conference home games since joining the ACC in 2024, losing only a 34-31 nail-biter to Clemson in their first season as members.
It also doesn’t help Virginia’s cause that SMU had last week off to rest, while the Cavaliers had to expend a lot of energy to rally past Syracuse while watching several key players limp off the field. This would be arguably Tony Elliott’s most impressive win in his five seasons as Virginia’s coach if he can find a way to pull it off.
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