Latvian intelligence is warning that Russia is preparing possible military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland, including drones, missiles or other hybrid attacks, in an effort to pressure NATO countries to stop supporting Ukraine.
“We see indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland — not a conventional war, because Russia is not capable of that right now, but hybrid attacks, such as missiles, drones or other actions designed to send a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems,” Latvian intelligence told Fox News Digital.
The most immediate concern, according to Latvian intelligence, is not that Moscow is ready for a full-scale war with NATO, but that Russian President Vladimir Putin could miscalculate because the surrounding institutions are feeding him the version of reality he wants to hear.
The Baltic states and Poland are NATO allies, meaning a Russian provocation there could quickly test America’s treaty commitments and risk a broader confrontation. It also comes as Washington and its allies weigh how far to go in supporting Ukraine and tightening sanctions on Moscow.
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Latvian intelligence argues that Putin is not only looking for ways to pressure NATO countries to back off Ukraine, but may also be receiving distorted assessments from inside his own system — raising the risk that Russia could misjudge Western resolve.
“The biggest concern is miscalculation. Russian institutions are telling Putin what he wants to hear, and that creates a dangerous cycle that can lead to foolish and senseless decisions,” Latvian intelligence said.
“We see more and more signs that Putin wants to receive only positive news. He is isolated, and that makes decision-making even more problematic as decisions are not based on the real situation,” Latvian intelligence added.
The Latvian warning tracks with concerns raised by Polish officials during Fox News Digital reporting in June in Poland, where officials described Russia’s hybrid war against NATO’s eastern flank as already underway. Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Marcin Bosacki pointed to assassinations, drone activity, cyberattacks and attacks on critical infrastructure on NATO territory, including what he described as a Russian-instigated cyberattack on Polish energy infrastructure intended “to black out part of Poland.”
Amb. Krzysztof Olendzki also described the Belarus border as part of a Russian and Belarusian campaign to weaponize illegal migration against NATO countries.
Latvian intelligence also assessed that Western sanctions are having a real impact inside Russia, despite Moscow’s public claims that it has absorbed the pressure.
“Russia says publicly that sanctions do not matter, but its own internal assessments show that sanctions are biting,” Latvian intelligence told Fox News Digital. “They may not change Putin’s mindset, but they limit Russia’s financial resources and thus opportunities and force to make difficult choices regarding recruitment, military spending, and pressure on businesses. Its war economy is a crumbling ‘house of cards.’”
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The assessment comes as Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau, known as SAB, released a public report detailing how Russia is intensifying “lawfare” against the West — using courts, legal claims and international institutions to pressure Western governments, weaken support for Ukraine and create possible justification for more aggressive actions.
The report outlines Russian efforts to study Iran’s experience challenging Western sanctions through international legal mechanisms.
Russian experts have analyzed Iran’s 2016 case against the United States at the International Court of Justice and are looking for ways to adapt similar tactics against Western countries, according to the Constitution Protection Bureau.
“If you want to push Russia toward a peace deal that is acceptable to Ukraine and the West, sanctions are the right mechanism,” Latvian intelligence said. “We need more international pressure on Russia through sanctions.”
The Constitution Protection Bureau also warns that Russia has prepared a complaint against the Baltic States at the U.N.’s International Court of Justice, formally accusing them of discrimination against Russians and Russian speakers. Latvian intelligence believes the legal campaign is not only about the courtroom, but about building a narrative Moscow could later use as a pretext for action.
“Russia believes the Baltic States are governed by pro-American elites who are disconnected from their own people. They made a similar mistake about Ukraine before the invasion, which is why this perception worries us,” Latvian intelligence said.
The Constitution Protection Bureau report argues that Russia is trying to turn propaganda into legal and political action. It describes Moscow’s planned complaint as relying on a “highly manipulative approach” to international law, including selective interpretations of international norms and what the report calls “imagined evidence” of alleged discrimination.
The concern is that Russia could use those claims to justify pressure, intimidation or hybrid operations — the same broad logic Moscow used when it claimed it was acting to protect Donbas residents before invading Ukraine.
“Currently, there are no military threats to Latvia,” its intelligence said. “We are not concerned about a full-scale invasion right now. Russia would need three to five years, even if the war in Ukraine ended today, to rebuild sufficient capabilities. What worries us now are provocations — drones, missiles and other hybrid attacks.”
The Russian government did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.
