The Ravens roster allotment tells a story.
Things could certainly change through the course of the week, but this construction is vastly different from anything we’ve seen recently. There is no fullback and just three running backs and only one real blocking tight end. The secondary is loaded – though that’s not unusual, on paper – and, especially if linebacker Teddye Buchanan isn’t a full-go for Week 1, they are light in inside linebacker, too.
We knew the offense as hanging its spots dramatically in terms of schematics and language and principles and formations. Going under center more, getting into I-formation looks, and attacking defenses differently are part of the reason 30-year-od Declan Doyle was hired in the first place. But now that we are into the regular-season workweek and we have a 53-man roster to dissect, it holds more clues, I believe, about what is to come and the approach that will be taken on both sides of the ball.
I’m going to be tracking these three factors in the opening week game with the Colts, especially if the nature of this roster doesn’t change dramatically in the meantime:
Jumbo Formations
Okay, so follow me here. The Ravens have one legit blocking tight end in veteran Durham Smythe. Mark Andrews is in the later stages of his career and blocking is not his forte and the two kid tight ends on the roster really can’t do it yet and no one is really pretending they can.
And they let the All-Pro fullback walk in free agency and Doyles mentor, Sean Payton, uses a fullback and generally a Joker RB/FB/TE as well, and this roster appears to have none of the above. They didn’t even put FB/TE (without the hands) Lucas Scott on the practice squad. This feels like quite a tell in a couple of ways (one of which we’ll get to in a minute).
They repped the hell out of the second team offensive line all summer, especially the tackles, so I’m thinking we may get some super heavy looks with an extra offensive lineman on the field to help muscle teams (starting with the Colts in Week 1) and get brawny that way, since there aren’t an abundance of other options.
It just so happens that Payton, in his three years in Denver (Doyle was there for two of them) ranks fourth in usage of six offensive linemen, doing it 234 times. He’s fourth in number of pass plays called from that look and fifth in number of rush plays. Hmmm. And the Colts faced six-man lines at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL last season.
11 Personnel Like Never Before
Since Lamar Jackson entered his first full season as a starting QB (2019), the Ravens have utilized 11 personnel, with three wide receivers, just 40.7% of the time. That is lowest in the NFL (league average is 60.4). We just chronicled the tight end issues; there is no way they can fully trust Matthew Hibner and Josh Cuevas and those youngsters were playing well into the final preseason game while receiver Ja’Kobi Lane’s heaviest workload came in the first half of the first game; this coaching staff had basically seen enough by then.
They have Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Lane, Devontez Walker and LaJohntay Wester who all figure to be up for this game, and perhaps rookie Elijah Sarratt as well. I kind of just think this is who they are and they’ll be adept running and throwing out of it. Baltimore was in 11 just 40% of the time last year; no way they aren’t in it at least two-thirds of the team to start the season.
The Colts are bringing back defensive coordinator Luo Anarumo (who got a raw deal in Cincy after turning that unit around). No team had more passes thrown on it out of 11 personnel last season than the Colts and no team gave up more passing yards facing 11. Opposing receivers caught 14 TD passes out of 11 vs. Indy last year, tied for fourth-most in the NFL. Hmm.
Dime Time
I wonder if Minter goes heavy into the dime looks here early in the season? I’ve talked myself into it at this point.
Perhaps the Colts attack with Sean McVay-type 13 personnel (three tight ends) looks to try to keep some of those defensive backs – the strength of Baltimore’s roster – off the field. But one way to hide a lack of coverage linebackers (especially if Buchanan still isn’t right coming off an ACL tear) is by simply keeping them off the field and just going with Roquan Smith.
Minter had six DBs and one LB on the field for 468 snaps in his two seasons with the Chargers, second-most in the NFL. It’s definitely a thing for him and he has more than enough body types and skillsets back there to pull it off. It is worth noting, however, that his defense got undressed by the Colts last October in a 38-24 defeat and Minter ran dime for 18 of 58 snaps and Daniel Jones carved him up going 10/15 for 120 yards and TD when he did it.
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