Four games into the 2026 NFL season, the Denver Broncos sit at 2-2, with slow starts in each game and a pathetic total of just 13 first-half points.
It’s clear the Broncos have a lot of work to do to become a top contender.
However, it’s worth noting the Broncos have played four teams that have all shown why they rank among the favorites for a deep playoff run, if not a trip to the Super Bowl. The Broncos’ 2-2 start isn’t something to dismiss outright, because they’ve found ways to beat two top teams, and in the other two games, they’ve had their chances.
Broncos’ DVOA
As the advanced metric DVOA shows, the Broncos have faced the NFL’s toughest schedule in the first four weeks. No other team has faced the gauntlet that Denver has.
Four weeks into the season, DVOA now accounts for opponent adjustments to the tune of 40%. The Broncos sit 14th overall in DVOA at 0.6%, ranked 15th in offense at -2.2%, 14th in defense at -0.7%, and 15th in special teams at 2.1%. Remember that DVOA is better for defense when it’s negative.
Broncos’ Opponent DVOA
But what about Denver’s opponents thus far? As it turns out, the Broncos have already faced the top three teams in DVOA. In order of ranking, they are the San Francisco 49ers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Kansas City Chiefs.
The 49ers rank first overall at 54.8%, first in offense at 44.6%, fifth in defense at -13.5 %, and 22nd in special teams at -3.4%.
The Jaguars rank second overall at 40.1%, fourth in offense at 21%, third in defense at 19.4%, and 18th in special teams at -0.2%.
The Chiefs rank third overall at 25.6%, fifth in offense at 20%, 10th in defense at -5%, and 16th in special teams at 0.6%.
While special teams isn’t a strength for these three teams, they have top offenses and defenses — all three offenses in the top five and two defenses in the top five plus one in the top 10.
Add to this that the Los Angeles Rams rank seventh overall in DVOA at 18%, seventh in offense at 13.6%, fourth in defense at -18.9%, and 32nd in special teams at -14.5%. That means that every team the Broncos have faced is in the top 10 in overall DVOA, offensive DVOA, and defensive DVOA, with three in the top four in each category.
The Broncos have areas to improve, but the fact is, they’ve faced four teams that all have a legitimate case for the Super Bowl.
What Happens Next?
The question now is what happens with the Broncos in the next four games?
Denver will face the Seattle Seahawks on a short week in Week 6 on Thursday Night Football and the Chiefs again in Week 8. The Seahawks rank sixth overall in DVOA and have the top defensive DVOA.
In other words, while the schedule won’t be as tough as it was the first four weeks, the Broncos still have to face two tough opponents in their next four. And they can’t take the likes of the Los Angeles Chargers (this week’s opponent) and the Arizona Cardinals lightly, even though they rank lower in DVOA. The Cardinals rank 19th overall, while the Chargers rank 31st.
The Takeaway
Again, if there’s a silver lining to the first four weeks, it’s that the Broncos faced four tough teams and still found a way to win two of those games, both at home.
The Broncos would certainly like to get more than two wins in the next four games to secure a chance at the playoffs. But to do so, they need to win at least one of these two games against the Seahawks or Chiefs, while taking care of business versus the Chargers and Cardinals, both of which are on the road.
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