The Green Party is spoiling for a fight in Keir Starmer‘s constituency if the Prime Minister quits the Commons altogether after leaving Downing Street.
A string of polls have put Zack Polanksi’s party ahead of Labour in Holborn and St Pancras, with a by-election potentially creating a serious headache for Andy Burnham.
Sir Keir is said to be ‘incandescent’ at being ousted and some of Mr Burnham’s allies believe the outgoing PM has sought to undermine his replacement by setting him a short timetable to prepare for government.
While Sir Keir has not set out his intentions for after he departs No 10, quitting the Commons and triggering a difficult by-election would be a sardonic parting gift for his successor.
The Greens are already relishing the prospect of a contest in Sir Keir’s seat, with a source saying: ‘We’d certainly be serious contenders and would throw the kitchen sink at it.’
And another source close to Mr Polanski told the Mail: ‘It’s definitely something we’re thinking about.’
During May’s local elections the Green Party achieved a clean sweep in Camden’s Holborn and Covent Garden ward, winning three seats and ousting the Labour council leader in the process.
Labour clung on to overall control of Camden council with a small majority, but lost 17 seats in Sir Keir’s backyard, with 11 of these going to the Greens.
Sir Keir has not yet said whether the end of his premiership will lead to a decision to step down as an MP, either before the end of the current parliamentary term or at the next general election
Zack Polanski’s Greens are relishing the prospect of a contest in Sir Keir’s seat, with a source saying: ‘We’d certainly be serious contenders and would throw the kitchen sink at it’
Mr Polanski’s party had never previously had more than three councillors in Camden before, and it narrowly missed out on other target wards in the area in May.
Selection for the previously safe Labour seat of Holborn and St Pancras has only come up once in the past 48 years, when Sir Keir replaced the retiring Frank Dobson in 2015.
He has not yet said whether the end of his premiership will lead to a decision to step down as an MP, either before the end of the current parliamentary term or at the next general election.
However a series of forecasts from Electoral Calculus have shown that Labour is on track to lose Sir Keir’s seat to the Greens if an election was to be held.
A recent forecast by the pollster suggested Labour would have just a 27 per cent chance of retaining Holborn and St Pancras, while the Greens have a 70 per cent chance of winning it.
The PM’s share of the vote in the constituency is 48.9 per cent, slightly less than the 50.8 per cent share that Labour had in Gorton and Denton at the 2024 election. Labour lost the Greater Manchester seat to the Greens in February’s by-election.
At the last election Sir Keir faced a challenge from Andrew Feinstein, an independent pro-Gaza candidate, and the Greens, who won almost 30 per cent of the vote between them.
