Fantasy football teaches a philosophical lesson. Nothing in the world is guaranteed. In fantasy sports, that shows up weekly. Marvin Harrison Jr. has endured, Brian Thomas Jr. has faltered, and so on. Hardly any wide receivers are must-starts week to week. In Week 5, the eight receivers referenced below are deemed must-sits. Let me explain.
Jakobi Meyers
Meyers has concerning volume and is a must-sit in fantasy football. He has 3.8 targets per game, and Meyers’ relevancy has been tied to his 2 total touchdowns. While the Eagles haven’t been at their best defensively, they are still a top-half coverage unit.
Emeka Egbuka
Both Buccaneers wide receivers, Egbuka and Chris Godwin, can be sat. If I had to pick one for a worse setting, it would be Egbuka.
Jalon Daniels’ game plan relied on short passing. The Buccaneers averaged 7.8 yards per reception in Week 4. Daniels’ average depth of target was a mere 3.9 yards. If this benefits anyone, it’s Godwin out of the slot, with a high expected catch rate. Egbuka, on the other hand, may lack downfield targets.
DeVaughn Vele
The average NFL offense will pass the ball 30-35 times per game. Over four weeks, the Saints are throwing the ball 45 times per game. That is unsustainable, and fantasy managers can expect as much as a 30% downtick in passing volume.
That means Vele’s 7.3 targets per game should decline. That begins this Sunday against the Vikings, who are very clearly the best defense in the NFL: 1st in Points Allowed, 1st in 3rd-down percentage, and allowing fewer than 200 passing yards per game.
Wan’Dale Robinson
I do love Carnell Tate this Sunday. I do not love Robinson. Lined up mostly from the slot, Robinson will see a great deal of Jalen Pitre. As much as Kamari Lassiter and Derek Stingley Jr. have endured, Pitre has not, ranked 10th in PFF Coverage Grade and 14th in Completion Percentage Allowed. That is enough to fade a wideout on a bad offense.
Courtland Sutton
Sutton is averaging 5.3 targets and a brutal 2.3 receptions per game. The connection between Bo Nix and Sutton is lost. While Pat Bryant’s absence could support more volume, I think that support is irrelevant. Bryant often plays out of the slot, which will increase volume for Troy Franklin, who should play more, and add extra targets for Jaylen Waddle.
Kalif Raymond
Last week, I argued for a sell-high on Raymond. I hope that advice was followed. Raymond had 2 targets for 6 yards in Week 4. He played 40% less snaps than Rome Odunze, and over 20% less than both Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland. For the second straight week, Raymond’s route count has gone down by exactly six (20 routes run).
Khalil Shakir
DJ Moore is out? Doesn’t matter. Shakir’s matchup is brutal, facing Quentin Lake out of the slot. Lake is among the NFL’s best defensive backs right now. The Rams’ slot cornerback is 1st in PFF Coverage Grade and 5th in EPA Allowed per Target. He allows 3.5 receptions for 26 yards per game.
Michael Pittman Jr.
Pittman ranks outside the top 70 starting wide receivers in the NFL regarding PFF Receiving Grade, Yards per Route Run, and EPA per Target. Over three games, Pittman Jr. has not scored a touchdown and has only 89 total receiving yards. I fear the preseason injury has carried over and affected his production. He cannot be trusted in Week 5.
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