Image source, PA MediaNigel Farage has long had a capacity for political theatre – and here he goes again.
Having tantalised Westminster with a teasing social media post about his “future in public life”, he took to Reform’s stage, in front of Reform’s camera and without journalists in the room, to set out how he would again try to seize the limelight and the initiative.
His address held onto its headline until the last few sentences: he will resign as an MP and then refight the seat of Clacton in Essex that has held for the last two years.
So why is he doing this?
In recent weeks, and indeed days, Nigel Farage has been under the cosh.
Headline after headline about his relationships with rich folk willing to give him money and his lack of willingness to disclose and register this, later exposed by journalists, meant his back was against the wall.
He has repeatedly insisted he didn’t need to disclose what were, he says, personal gifts from before he returned to politics.
The weekly, sometimes daily, diet of Reform news conferences at Westminster had dried up.
The Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards had opened an inquiry into the £5m gift Farage had received from the Thailand-based British crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne but decided not to declare.
Farage insisted he didn’t need to, because it was a personal gift. Many others pointed to the rules demanding such disclosures from benefits received in the 12 months before being elected – and an inquiry began.
And the headlines kept coming – not least the Sunday Times investigation, published at the weekend, external, into the support given to Farage by George Cottrell, a man previously convicted and jailed for fraud in the US.
A key thing to understand here is the inquiry by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, Daniel Greenberg, had the potential to lead to a by-election itself.
Granted we were several steps away from that, but a growing number of folk at Westminster were anticipating its likelihood.
In that situation, Nigel Farage could have been forced to face his electorate. In this situation he is seeking to seize the initiative and bring it on himself.
Speaking to his allies after his announcement, I am told his aim throughout the forthcoming campaign – as he himself said in his speech – is to clearly frame this as “the people versus the establishment”, as one friend put it.
“This is Nigel setting the agenda, he is sick to death of being judged by Sky, The Times and Daniel Greenberg,” they added.
The reference to Sky News is because Farage is boiling with anger at what he sees as the recent “harassment” of his daughter at one of his properties.
Sky insist they have behaved appropriately.
Reform intend, I am told, to get on with the by-election as quickly as possible.
They will crack on with the parliamentary formalities immediately.
This will mean Farage being given a Crown appointment which bars him from being an MP – either Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds or Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead.
Once this has happened and the Clacton seat is vacant, the writ can be moved in the Commons to trigger a by-election, while Parliament is still sitting and before its summer break begins at the end of next week.
That would likely mean a by-election at some point next month – just as a new government led by Andy Burnham is beginning its time in power, in all likelihood.
The question now is how Reform’s opponents react.
Do they put up candidates or not?
Restore Britain, led by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, has already said it won’t stand.
Reform is baiting Labour to do so, claiming it would be Burnham’s first big test.
But Team Burnham are describing it as a “gimmick” and the prime minister, at the Nato Summit in Ankara in Turkey has labelled it a “desperate stunt”.
And there is a precedent in these situations for opponents not to put up candidates – and to argue they are not going to endorse what they see as a publicity stunt by taking part.
In 2008, Conservative MP David Davis resigned his seat of Haltemprice and Howden as part of a campaign about civil liberties. Neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats stood against him.
It is worth remembering, incidentally, that this by-election doesn’t end the investigation that the Standards Commissioner is conducting, which, as I mentioned, could itself eventually lead to what is known as a recall petition and, yes, a by-election.
It has led some in Parliament to envisage a scenario where Nigel Farage fights and wins one by-election, only to be confronted by another.
This would only happen if Parliament concluded this punishment was appropriate, and, crucially, 10% of those on the electoral roll in Clacton signed a recall petition demanding one.
It could be, in that scenario, that people there have had enough of ballot boxes and polling stations.
Let’s see.
What Reform are effectively trying to say is we are getting ahead of you – and grabbing the attention and the agenda.
We are in for a split screen summer by the looks of it: a new prime minister, in Andy Burnham on one side, and Nigel Farage, his big political rival, on the other.
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