Despite a loss at Louisville last month, there are plenty of numbers that make the case that SMU is the second-best team in the ACC this season.
The Mustangs are 16-3 in the regular sason against conference opponents since joining the league in 2024. Their defense is adept at sacking opposing quarterbacks (141 since 2023, most in FBS in that span) and forcing turnovers (55 since 2024, 13th in that interval).
But there’s one number that should be keeping Virginia Coach Tony Elliott and his staff up at night this week as they prepare for Saturday’s visit to Dallas.
In Coach Rhett Lashlee’s five seasons as head coach, the Mustangs are 22-2 at home. And they’re averaging 44.5 points per game at Ford Stadium in that stretch.
That’s a red flag for a Virginia squad that has yet to win a game outside Charlottesville this season and has allowed exactly 38 points each time it suited up in road uniforms.
The Cavaliers looked largely helpless against West Virginia in Charlotte and Florida State in Tallahassee. They allowed WVU quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. to amass 313 total yards (190 passing, 123 rushing) and his FSU counterpart, Ashton Daniels, to compile 319 (183 through the air, 136 on the ground). Each accounted for five touchdowns.
SMU’s Kevin Jennings is arguably better than either of them. In his lone career start against Virginia, a 33-7 win in Scott Stadium two years ago, he threw for 323 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another score.
He’s now older, wiser and better — and loves playing at home.
In three home games this season, Jennings has connected on 67 of 85 passes (79 percent) for 961 yards and 10 touchdowns. Unsurprisingly, SMU is 3-0 in those games.
That’s a tall task for a Virginia defense that hasn’t been able to mount a consistent pass rush this season. Add to that the fact that the Cavaliers will take on the Mustangs without their best coverage cornerback (Omillio Agard, who’s out for the season with a torn ACL) and possibly without their best defensive player so far this year, safety Brandyn Hillman (sore ankle). If Hillman plays, he’s unlikely to be at full speed.
You can make the case that almost any player, especially a quarterback, is more comfortable and effective in home games. He slept in a familiar bed the night before, has a fan base rooting for him (and not distracting him with noise at the line of scrimmage) and suffers no jet lag.
But Jennings and the Mustangs take it to an extreme.
Holding the Mustangs under 38 points will be a challenge for Virginia’s defense. But even if the Cavaliers do so, it won’t guarantee a victory.
A year ago, Miami held SMU to 26 points in Dallas. Two weeks ago on the same field, Boston College limited the Mustangs to 25.
SMU won both games.
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