Republicans are in for an “f’ing rough” midterm, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said Monday, as poor polls for the GOP and President Donald Trump continue to pour in.
With just over a month until Election Day, some Republican candidates are trying to separate themselves from the 80-year-old leader of their party, who has insisted that affordability concerns are a “hoax.” The Iran war, they say, should be ended immediately. But with early voting underway, time is running out, and polls still show Republicans could face significant losses.
“It’s going to be ‘f’ing rough,’” Enten said on CNN News Central, quoting what a Trump adviser told CNN. “The levee has been breached. The blue wave is coming over the wall, Speaker Johnson and President Trump.”
Enten cited polling in “key House districts.”
In September 2018, shortly before Democrats won 41 seats, Trump’s net approval rating was -8. This month, that number is double: -16.
“Simply put, mathematically, this equals a Democratic majority for the House of Representatives,” Enten said.
Trump also is underperforming on the economy in certain battleground districts.
In 2018, 77 percent of respondents in those areas said they had a positive view of the economy. Eight years later, only 37 percent of voters in those key districts approve of Trump’s handling of the economy.
While not exactly the same metrics, they still signify trouble ahead for Republicans, Enten said.He then shared his own aggregation of House forecasts, which shows Democrats winning 236 seats; a majority requires 218.
“At this point, it looks like Democrats are going to have a very merry November indeed, at least when it comes to the House of Representatives,” he said.
As for the Senate, Republicans are facing strong challenges to the seats they hold in Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Alaska, and elsewhere.
No Texas Democrat has won a statewide office since 1994, but a Marist poll released last week shows James Talarico leading Trump-endorsed Attorney General Ken Paxton, 50 percent to 44 percent.
In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads incumbent Dan Sullivan by four and five points, according to two polls released earlier this month.
And in Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson trails Barack Obama-endorsed Democrat Josh Turek by eight points, according to a Marist poll from two weeks ago.
Republicans have a 53-47 edge in the Senate. Election forecaster Decision Desk HQ earlier this month called the battle for control a “pure toss-up.”
