Image source, ReutersAs discussions continue to resolve the crisis caused by President Zelensky’s decision last week to part ways with Ukraine’s popular Defence Minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, those organising daily protests in support of the minister have issued a threat.
“If, by Friday July 24th [commander-in-chief Oleksandr] Syrskyi has not been dismissed and Federov has not been nominated for the post of Minister of Defence,” army veteran Dmytro Koziatynsky wrote on social media, “we will begin an open-ended nationwide protest.”
No protests are currently scheduled before then. Ukraine is waiting, anxiously, for a resolution.
Over the weekend, the news was full of reports of meetings and discussions, as Zelensky consulted ministers and generals.
Amid a welter of rumours, the General Staff was forced to deny reports that Gen Syrskyi was about to be – or even had already been – sacked. Another report suggested that Fedorov had refused an offer to return to a different position in government.
Kyrylo Budanov, head of the president’s office, urged Ukrainians to remain calm.
“The situation surrounding the latest internal changes has caused strong emotions,” he wrote on Tuesday.
With the noisy calls of angry protesters echoing around the tight confines of Ivana Franka Square, within earshot of the presidential palace, Budanov said the government was taking note.
“I understand people who express their position…..The position of society has been heard.”
Image source, EPA/ShutterstockWith large numbers of demonstrators directing their anger towards Gen. Syrskyi – seen by many as representing outdated Soviet-era military doctrines, Budanov, a former head of military intelligence, warned people “not to hate anyone”.
“The enemy is closely monitoring our every internal dispute and is waiting for us to start fighting among ourselves,” he wrote.
“The work is underway. There will be results.”
On Monday, the beleaguered but usually silent 60-year-old Gen Syrskyi hit back against his critics, publishing a long defence of his record and urging readers not to focus on his widely-reported rivalry with 35-year-old Mykhailo Fedorov.
Despite Zelensky’s claim last week that the two men could not even bear to sit in the same room, Syrskyi said it had been a surprise to learn that he had a conflict with the minister.
“I perceived our relationship as a working one,” he wrote in an op-ed for the Militarny website.
“If I offended anyone, Mykhailo Albertovych [Fedorov], I’m sorry.”
The general said the issues of military contracts, procurement and mobilisation currently being aired in the press and boiled down to pithy slogans on pieces of cardboard carried aloft by protestors were a great deal more complicated than most people realised.
“Decisions on which people’s lives depend are not made with slogans,” he said. “Real work, not the public drama surrounding it, wins the war.”
Image source, Anadolu via Getty ImagesLike the ousted defence minister, the commander-in-chief avoided directly personal attacks, but the object of much of his criticism was pretty clear.
“Presentations should not turn into self-representations,” he wrote, in a thinly veiled swipe at Federov’s long, detailed press conference last week.
“Behind each slide there should be a document, a budget and a procedure,” the general went on. “Otherwise, instead of a decision the army gets disappointment.”
Syrskyi’s problem however is that most Ukrainians, especially the younger ones, seem to trust Federov’s analysis of what needs to change in order for Ukraine to win the war, not the general’s.
More than anyone, Federov is seen by many as driving innovation in the military,gradually improving Ukraine’s chances of beating back its numerically superior enemy.
“Right now, the war is changing, so we need new ideas and a new structure,” 44-year-old law company employee Tetiana Makarenko told me at one of the protests over the weekend.
“It’s often said that a small Soviet army can’t defeat a big Soviet army. It’s time to change the mindset and start the new type of war.”
Federov’s six months at the helm in the defence ministry have coincided with a string of military successes for which the minister, not always fairly perhaps, is credited.
“We had this feeling because we saw the changing situation,” Makarenko said. “We had the feeling that we can do this.”
In his article, Syrskyi hit back at those accusing him of a lack of strategy, or that he had failed to embrace new technology.
“The strangest reproach that I have heard is that I supposedly do not want to fight with drones,” he said, pointing out that he had presided over the creation of an unmanned systems force as a separate branch of the military.
Image source, Matthew Goddard/BBCBut drones, despite being responsible for the lion’s share of Russian casualties, were not enough, he argued.
“I cannot transform a million-strong army to drones in two months and say: now we fight like this.”
Syrskyi said he was not at war with the defence ministry but with Russia. But while he mounts his defence against a host of critics, speculation has fallen on who Zelensky might choose to replace him.
The candidates include Mykhailo Drapaty, commander of the Joint Forces, Andriy Bileksky, commander of the Third Army Corps, Oleh Apostol, commander of the Airborne Assault Forces and Ihor Obolensky, commander of the National Guard Corps.
All have distinguished military records, but crucially all are from a much younger generation of officers. At 46, Biletsky is the oldest while Apostol and Obolensky are both 39.
At just 35, the youngest possible candidate is Brig Gen Denys Prokopenko, another National guard commander, whose “Azov” Regiment, while politically controversial for its alleged far-right connections, achieved near mythic status during the bitter siege of the southern port city of Mariupol in 2022.
Held as a prisoner of war by Russia following the collapse of the city, Prokopenko returned to Ukraine as part of a prisoner exchange in July 2023, quickly resuming his command despite Russian demands that he remain outside the country until the war was over.
Zelensky says he is still working out “what adjustments need to be made to Ukraine’s defence strategy” and has thanked everyone “for their openness, honesty and substantive contributions”.
With Russia expected to resume its attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure this autumn, the president says “Ukraine must enter August as strong as possible”.
As the protests fall silent for now, the country waits for the president to make a series of possibly fateful decisions.
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