Senator Darline Graham rode Donald Trump’s endorsement to become the GOP Senate nominee in South Carolina, but alarm bells are sounding over the race in what was once considered a solid red state.
A new poll of likely voters in South Carolina showed Graham with just a one-point lead over Democratic challenger Dr. Annie Andrews.
Her brother, Lindsey Graham, won by more than 10 points against Democratic Party challenger Jaime Harrison in 2020.
The Trafalgar Group poll was conducted last week and showed Trump’s handpicked candidate at 43.4 percent to the Democratic nominee’s 42.3 percent. 8.5 percent were undecided.
The tightening race came despite the poll’s much larger sample of Republican voters: 59.1 percent. Andrews led among voters under 50, as well as among women.
It is one of several polls in recent weeks showing a tighter-than-expected race.
An InsiderAdvantage poll this month also showed Andrews within the margin of error among likely voters, including eight percent of Republicans and 41 percent of Independents.
On Tuesday, Politico reported that Senate Majority Leader John Thune would be heading down to South Carolina as part of his campaign swing ahead of the midterms.
It comes as Republicans are facing an increasingly ugly political landscape as they look to hold onto the Senate majority, with Democrats competing in a series of states Trump won in 2024.
While Thune will be making multiple stops in what have long been considered traditional battleground states, a visit to the Palmetto State shows they’re keeping a close eye on it.
Majority Whip John Barrasso rushed down to South Carolina ahead of the runoff to help Graham’s campaign, and Trump even held a rally in the state to help get her across the finish line against Rep. Ralph Norman last month.
But the divisions in the GOP remain, with just over 30 days to go before the midterms.
Norman’s wife Elaine has noticeably been sharing anti-Graham content on Facebook even after she locked in the nomination.
While GOP critics have warned a splintered GOP vote could ultimately help Democrats, Norman has continued to share content critical of the South Carolina Republican Party and even a write-in effort for her husband.
As the race tightens, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates it as “Likely Republican,” but it shifted slightly in Democrats’ favor last week from “Solid Republican.” The analysis noted the conservative grassroots campaign to write in Norman.
The state largely remains overwhelmingly Republican, as the last Democrat elected to the Senate there was Fritz Hollings back in 1998.
But Graham and Andrews will face off in person for a debate in just over a week on October 11.
It’s a high-stakes event for both candidates. Andrews is trying to win over Republicans to build her coalition before Election Day. Meanwhile, Graham needs to avoid repeating her previous debate performance.
She faced bipartisan criticism for her appearance on the debate stage during the runoff, where she admitted a lack of knowledge on national security, calling it “not my thing.”
