WASHINGTON (AP) — Arizona Republicans will choose a nominee in a state primary Tuesday to challenge Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in November. Voters across the state will also set the general election matchups for competitive U.S. House seats and for a full range of state and local offices.
The Arizona governorship is a top takeover opportunity for Republicans in a midterm environment where voters historically have punished the party occupying the White House. The eventual winner, along with his or her statewide political organization, could play an important role in the 2028 presidential campaign, as Arizona is once again expected to be a critical battleground.
Of the seven Democratic governors in states Donald Trump carried in 2024 as the Republican presidential nominee, only two are up for reelection in 2026, and only Hobbs is expected to face a competitive general election.
Two Arizona congressmen and two businessmen are vying for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. Five-term U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs is a former chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus. Eight-term U.S. Rep. David Schweikert is giving up his competitive swing district seat after narrowly prevailing against strong Democratic challenges in the last three elections. Businessmen Ken Miceli and Scott Neely have backgrounds in the construction industry.
Biggs has a key endorsement from Trump. The president had already endorsed another candidate, billionaire housing developer Karrin Taylor Robson, but he issued an additional endorsement for Biggs shortly after he entered the race in early 2025. Taylor Robson dropped out of the race in February. Trump has been known to occasionally endorse more than one candidate for the same race. Recently, he endorsed both candidates in the primary runoff for South Carolina governor.
In the race to replace Schweikert in the 1st Congressional District, the Republican field features state Rep. Joseph Chaplik, sportscaster and former Arizona Cardinals placekicker Jay Feely and technology and telecommunications executive John Trobough. Feely briefly ran in the 5th Congressional District, but Trump endorsed another candidate and nudged Feely to run in another district or for a different office. Feely switched to the 1st District, and Trump endorsed him and former state party chair Gina Swoboda for the nomination. Swoboda later dropped out to run for secretary of state.
The Democratic primary includes two candidates from the 2024 primary for this same seat: former state Rep. Amish Shah and former local news anchor Marlene Galán-Woods. Shah won the nomination two years ago, while Galán-Woods finished third out of six candidates. Shah received 48% of the vote against Schweikert in the general election. Publisher Rick McCartney and entrepreneur Jonathan Treble round out the Democratic field.
The 1st Congressional District is just northeast of Phoenix and includes Scottsdale. It is contained entirely within Maricopa County. Schweikert received 51.9% and 50.4% of the vote in his 2024 and 2022 reelection bids, respectively. In the 2024 presidential race, Trump received about 51% of the vote, compared with about 48% for then-Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.
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Another Republican-held seat that is key to Democratic hopes of retaking the U.S. House is in the 6th Congressional District, where Rep. Juan Ciscomani seeks a third term. He and his Democratic opponent, Marine Corps veteran JoAnna Mendoza, are unopposed in their primaries.
In the state Legislature, all 30 state Senate seats and all 60 state House seats are up for election. Republicans hold slim majorities in both chambers. Democrats have not controlled the state Senate since 1992 or the state House since 1966, the last time the party controlled the governorship and both chambers simultaneously.
Maricopa County is by far the most populous and most influential of the state’s 15 counties in both Democratic and Republican statewide primaries. It is home to Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tempe and Mesa and contributed about 61% of the vote in the 2024 presidential general election. Pima County was a distant second with about 15% of the vote.
Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:
When do polls close?
Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 10 p.m. ET in almost all of the state. No results will be released before 11 p.m. ET. Most of Arizona does not observe daylight saving time. The Navajo Nation is an exception, and polls there close at 9 p.m. ET.
What’s on the ballot?
The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. House, governor, secretary of state, attorney general, treasurer, state school superintendent, state Corporation Commission, state Senate and state House.
Who gets to vote?
Registered Democrats and Republicans may vote only in their own parties’ primaries. Independents may vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary.
How many voters are there?
As of July, there were about 4.3 million registered voters in Arizona, including about 1.5 million Republicans, about 1.2 million Democrats and about 1.5 million voters not registered with any party.
How many people actually vote?
About 596,000 Democratic primary votes and about 831,000 Republican primary votes were cast in the 2022 primaries for governor.
How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?
Arizona conducts elections predominantly by mail. About 93% of the Democratic primary vote and about 79% of the Republican primary vote in the 2022 state primaries was cast early in person or by mail.
As of Thursday, about 755,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election, roughly 335,000 from Democrats and 347,000 from Republicans
When are early and absentee votes released?
Arizona counties tend to release all or almost all of their results from early in-person voting, as well as a significant amount of results from mail voting, in the first vote update of the night, usually before any in-person Election Day votes are reported.
How long does vote-counting usually take?
In the 2024 state primary, the AP first reported results at 11:02 p.m. ET, or 2 minutes after the state allowed votes to be released. About half of the total votes cast had been counted by 11:05 p.m. ET. The last vote update of the night was at about 5:35 a.m. ET with about 83% of total votes counted.
When will the AP declare a winner?
The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
How do recounts work?
In Arizona, recounts are automatic if the vote margin is 0.5% of the total vote or less. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
Are we there yet?
As of Tuesday, there will be 105 days until the 2026 midterm elections.
— Robert Yoon, Associated Press
