Fantasy football Week 4 RB preview: Aaron Jones and Jaylen Warren surging at just the right time

In Week 3, the injury finally hit the running back position, with De’Von Achane, Breece Hall, and Travis Etienne being knocked out of commission. In the waiver wire section, I will rank their replacements, but the truth is that I am not that excited about any of them but Braelon Allen, and he may not have more than a two-week run as a starter. That does not mean that Fantasy managers don’t have options. There are a handful of running backs emerging as what looks like must-start options. Jeremiyah Love was drafted as a starter and finally broke out of his committee in Week 3. Chuba Hubbard was someone we hit on last week as a must-start option for the foreseeable future. But, for Week 3 at least, Jaylen Warren and Aaron Jones could be better than both of them.

Warren turned 20 touches into 176 yards in Week 3 and should have at least one more week without Rico Dowdle. The Browns provide a difficult matchup, but short weeks often favor running backs. The best part about Warren is that he is game-script-dependent. He’ll be the lead back if the Steelers jump out to an early lead and he’ll eat in the passing game if the Steelers play from behind. I project another 100-yard game from Warren and a very good chance that he gets into the end zone at least once.

Jones had a good game last week, but Week 4 against the Dolphins should be much better. Jones had 84% of the team’s rush attempts and a 24% target share in Week and now faces a Dolphins defense that has given up the second-most Fantasy points to opposing running backs. In early Week 4 projections, he joins Warren in my top 10.

The reason I highlighted these guys is that on a lot of teams, they were the third running back drafted. In other words, the managers who drafted these guys may have a running back to trade. If I lost Achane for the season, the first place I would look is to make a trade with a team that has a running back surplus, hoping they have a weakness somewhere that I can address. They won’t be as good as we projected Achane to be for the rest of the season, but they could be in Week 4.

Now let’s get to the rest of the Week 4 RB Preview:

Week 4 RB Preview

• 64.4% — Jeremiyah Love played 64.4% of the offensive snaps in Week 3. We don’t expect him to look back; start him everywhere.
• 72.1% — Chase Brown has a 72.1% rush share, trailing only Jonathan Taylor and Jahmyr Gibbs. Do not panic about Brown’s lack of production.
• 2.7 — Ollie Gordon has 90 rush attempts in the NFL and he has averaged 2.7 yards per attempt. Not ideal.
• 34.9% — Bhayshul Tuten’s 34.9% tackle avoid rate is second only to Kenneth Walker amongst starting running backs. 
• 13.2% — Tony Pollard has a 13.2% explosive rush rate, which trails only James Cook amongst starting running backs. You may not want to start him against the Vikings, but there are positive signs.
• 35.5% — RJ Harvey has a 35.5% target per route run rate. He’s not a bad PPR fill-in if you are in a pinch. The 49ers have given up the fifth-most catches to running backs.
• 13.2 — Jaylen Warren is averaging a league-best 13.2 yards after catch per reception.
• 0 — Incredibly, Bucky Irving still does not have a rush inside the five-yard line since the 2024 season.
• 2.93 — The Seahawks are allowing 2.93 yards per carry to running backs. It could be tough sledding for Omarion Hampton.

My full set of Week 4 Fantasy football projections for every position is now available here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don’t live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 3. Projected stats for all starting running backs will be updated throughout the week, so check back regularly.