The Los Angeles Dodgers have one big question to answer before Major League Baseball’s trade deadline: How aggressive do they want to be?
With arguably the best farm system in baseball, the Dodgers could acquire just about any player they want. In their quest to become the first National League to ever complete a three-peat, it would make sense to do just that.
At the same time, the Dodgers don’t like going big at the trade deadline, with president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman saying it’s like “paying 150 cents, 200 cents on the dollar.” Moreover, the Dodgers could make zero moves and still be considered World Series favorites.
So, what will the Dodgers do ahead of Monday’s 3 p.m. PT deadline? Here are four bold predictions.
1. Dodgers Won’t Get Tarik Skubal
The Detroit Tigers are yet to tell teams that Tarik Skubal, the reigning back-to-back Cy Young winner, is available.
The Tigers are 52-58, but they’re just 3.5 games back of the final wild-card spot in the American League.
Detroit would be foolish to not trade Skubal, who’s set to leave the team in free agency in a few months. At the same time, they’re still on the cusp of making the playoffs — and Skubal gives them by far the best chance to win a playoff series.
Wherever Skubal is playing come Aug. 4, though, it’s not going to be to the Dodgers.
While the Dodgers would love to add Skubal to their rotation and keep him away from their biggest competitors, they don’t want to sell the farm for a player set to hit free agency in a few months.
Why?
Because they don’t need him.
Thus, another team — potentially the Milwaukee Brewers or Tampa Bay Rays — will sell the farm, because they do need him if they want to beat the Dodgers and win a World Series.
If Skubal is ultimately traded (which he should be), it won’t be to LA. However, in a couple months, he may very well be having a press conference at Dodger Stadium after signing one of the richest pitcher contracts in MLB history.
2. Dodgers Will Pivot, Trade for Clay Holmes
While the Dodgers aren’t going to get Skubal, they won’t come up empty-handed.
Instead of Skubal, the Dodgers will acquire a different starting pitcher: right-hander Clay Holmes from the New York Mets.
Holmes, 33, is recovering from a fractured fibula and has started a rehab assignment. The Dodgers were among the many teams in attendance scouting him.
In nine starts before the fluke injury (he got hit by a 111.1 mph comebacker), Holmes had a 2.39 ERA over 52.2 innings. What makes him a perfect Dodgers candidate is he’s two years removed from being one of baseball’s best relievers on the New York Yankees.
Across 220 relief appearances with the Yankees from 2021-24, Holmes had a 2.69 ERA with 238 strikeouts and made two All-Star teams. His experience as both a starter and reliever will make him invaluable for LA.
In the immediate, Holmes would slot into the rotation and give the Dodgers big innings as they look to keep their six-man rotation intact for the last two months of the regular season.
Then, come October, Holmes will have the ability to move to the bullpen (assuming Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow are all healthy), giving LA a true multi-inning weapon in the postseason.
Holmes has a player option for $12 million for next season. If he has a strong couple months and postseason with LA, he may be inclined to decline that and hit free agency. That won’t matter to the Dodgers.
3. Multiple Outfielders Will Be Traded Away
The Dodgers have too many outfielders and not enough spots for all of them.
At the big league level, the Dodgers have three All-Stars — Kyle Tucker, Andy Pages and Teoscar Hernández — as well as Alex Call and utility men Tommy Edman and Kiké Hernández.
At the minor league level, the Dodgers have arguably the greatest ever collection of outfield talent with 12 outfielders in their top 30 prospects, per MLB Pipeline. And they’ve already traded one — Landyn Vidourek to the Colorado Rockies — who was also in the top 30.
Thus, LA will look to trade multiple outfielders, both from the big league roster and their minor league talent pool.
Call will be traded (he’s drawing interest from at least three teams). The 28-year-old Ryan Ward will be traded. And at least one more outfielder will go (potentially in the Holmes trade), but most likely multiple as LA rearranges its major league roster and minor league depth.
Top prospects Josue De Paula, Mike Sirota and Eduardo Quintero, however, will not be moved.
4. Eric Lauer is Traded Away
Eric Lauer has done nothing but help the Dodgers win games.
Since being acquired in mid-May from the Toronto Blue Jays, Lauer is 5-0 with a 2.96 ERA. The Dodgers are 9-0 in his outings.
So why would the Dodgers possibly move him?
The left-hander is set to hit free agency in a couple months. If everyone is healthy for the stretch run of the season, Lauer likely wouldn’t have a spot on the postseason roster.
Thus, the team will look to get something for Lauer, likely in the form of a prospect or two. Holmes will essentially take his spot in the rotation, and is a much better fit for the postseason roster due to his relieving past.
The Dodgers will thank Lauer for his time in Dodger Blue, and send him to a contender looking for rotation help.
Don’t worry, he’ll still get a well-deserved ring if the Dodgers win the World Series.
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