Key Points
- U.S.-Canada trade war has intensified with 50% tariffs and retaliatory measures, threatening a nascent Canadian travel rebound; 56% of Canadian travelers say U.S. policies and political statements make them less likely to visit.
- Canadian arrivals fell 21% in 2024, driving a 5.5% overall drop in international visitation, with New York City particularly affected—international visits down 3.1% and Canadian visits down 19%, hurting hotel occupancy, Broadway attendance, and hotel employment (13% below 2019).
- Tightening federal entry policies—a permanent visa bond program (deposits up to $20,000), plans to revoke up to 200,000 visas, and record ICE arrests—are further deterring international tourists, with roughly a quarter of travelers who changed U.S. plans citing new visa policies.
Summary
Escalating U.S.-Canada trade tensions threaten to derail a fragile recovery in inbound travel to the United States, just as Canadian visitation was beginning to rebound. The White House imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, prompting retaliatory tariffs on roughly $20 billion in U.S. goods, and political rhetoric—including Trump’s “51st state” comments and an order to rename Lake Ontario “Lake America”—has soured Canadian sentiment. While recent data showed modest, base-effect-driven improvements (28% of Canadians visited the U.S. in the past six months, up from 23%, and four consecutive months of year-over-year gains in return trips), Canadian arrivals plunged 21% last year, contributing to a 5.5% overall decline in international visitation. Major markets like New York City have been hit especially hard, with hotel occupancy, Broadway attendance, and hotel employment all lagging, prompting industry groups to urge the federal government to resolve the dispute. Compounding the pressure, the Trump administration continues to tighten visa and entry policies—including a permanent visa bond program requiring deposits of up to $20,000, plans to revoke up to 200,000 visas, and record ICE arrests—further dampening international travelers’ willingness to visit.
