It was a better week of football from me, but still not a perfect week. That’s fine; there’s still room to grow, but we will see if we can close out the week with a nice win on Monday Night Football. This isn’t the best game on paper, as two 1–2 teams from the NFC South take the field looking to try and position themselves as one of the leaders in the division. Let’s look at what the best bet is for tonight’s game between the Falcons and Saints.
The Atlanta Falcons come into this game with a 1-2 record, having secured their first victory last week. It might be a bit hard to judge the Falcons this season because they started the year with two games from Cooper Rush. No disrespect intended to Rush, but he isn’t likely to lead you to a ton of wins. Last week, Michael Penix Jr. came back into the mix, and the offense looked like it received the jolt needed. They were more dynamic and looked more threatening and competent overall.
It isn’t just that Penix was back, though it clearly helped, as he went 18-for-25 with a touchdown, an interception, and 256 passing yards. It was that Bijan Robinson looks like the running back everyone wanted him to be when he was drafted highly four years ago. Robinson was a monster last week with 194 yards on 29 carries and two touchdowns. Drake London also had his best game of the season last week with nine receptions for 194 yards. Perhaps the most impressive part of last week’s game was that the Falcons held the Packers to 17 rushing yards.
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The New Orleans Saints are also 1-2, and it feels a bit like they could be 3-0 if things shook out a bit better for them. In Week 1, they basically did nothing on offense until the fourth quarter. Once it hit the fourth, they seemed to find their offense and racked up score after score, ultimately sending the game into overtime. Then they gave up a touchdown to the Lions before scoring one of their own. They opted for the 2-point conversion attempt and failed, which led to the loss.
In Week 2, they traveled to Baltimore and again looked a little slow to start the game. They scored 9 points through three quarters, but then finally broke through with two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Part of me wonders if quarterback Tyler Shough struggles to figure out opposing defenses and then finally breaks through. Last week, the defense couldn’t get a stop when needed, and the offense went scoreless in the fourth quarter. The Raiders went up 28-27 early in the quarter, and then scored another touchdown to give them the final score of 35-27.
Through three games, the Falcons have the best rushing defense in football. They are allowing opponents just 47.7 yards on the ground. Considering their opponents, I’m not sure it is overly impressive. They faced the Steelers, Panthers, and Packers; none of them are great rushers. I’d say the same about the Saints as well. However, it is the passing game from the Saints that I’m a little more interested in fading today.
Shough has faced the Falcons twice in his career, and he has thrown for 259 yards and 243 yards in his two games. This season, he has thrown for 410 yards, 252 yards, and 255 yards in his three games. His total tonight is 261.5, and the Falcons, on average, allow 263.0 yards per game. Aaron Rodgers, Bryce Young, and Jordan Love are all better than Shough and combine to average just 1.5 more than Shough’s total for tonight. Give me the under on his passing yards.
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