Well, just like every other year, predicting anything in the NFL isn’t nearly as easy as we think it is. Maybe penciling in whoever is playing the Browns every week isn’t the foolproof strategy we thought it was. And the Raiders are actually good this year? I blew that pick last week as my risky option, but the reality is, they’re all risks.
Just when we think we’ve got a firm grasp on what’s happening in this league, the NFL finds another way to throw us for a loop. The Commanders took it to the Seahawks with Marcus Mariota under center, while Case Keenum channeled his University of Houston days and dismantled the Eagles.
If you’ve somehow survived all the landmines that have been waiting around every corner this season, congratulations. Here are my Survivor Pool picks for Week 4 that are 100%, definitely, absolutely locks.
Chalk Pick
Baltimore Ravens v. Tennessee Titans
This is one of the two games everyone will likely be targeting this week. The Ravens’ next two games are on the road against the Falcons and Browns, which just 9 or 10 days ago looked like they could be just as easy as this one. That made it tempting to save Baltimore for one of those weeks and take the Vikings now.
Of course, the NFL had other plans. The Browns are now 3-1, while the Falcons are coming off a decisive win over the Packers and have new life with Michael Penix Jr. back under center. Suddenly, those “easy” future picks don’t look nearly as safe.
If you haven’t used either team yet, it’s essentially a toss-up between the Ravens and Vikings this week. I’ll give Baltimore the slight edge, though, because the Titans’ offense has looked anemic. Cam Ward hasn’t shown that he can consistently keep Tennessee in games, and while the Titans have a respectable defense, they’re going to have their hands full with a high-powered Ravens offense.
They’ll also have to contend with former Titan Derrick Henry, who has already made a habit of punishing his old team. For Tennessee to pull off the upset, it likely needs to keep Baltimore’s offense—and Henry—somewhere in the single digits or teens. That’s a lot to ask.
Safe but Not Chalk
Minnesota Vikings vs. Miami Dolphins
As previously mentioned, the Vikings are just about as good of a pick this as the Ravens this week. The Vikings historically have made a habit of keeping games close, then finding a way to win. I don’t think that will be the case this week. They’ll win by an amount somewhere near what the current spread is (10.5 points), according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
The Dolphins did surprisingly well to keep the game within reach against the Chiefs last week, and they still wound up losing by 14. They also lost star running back De’Von Achane for the season, which was a sad sight to see. This team is going nowhere, and they, paired with the aforementioned Titans, will be the most popular picks to choose their opponent in survivor pools going forward.
Riskier Pick
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Did the Seahawks lose and possibly get people a strike? Yes. Should we forgive them? Also yes.
The defense had an off-game, but tip your hat to Marcus Mariota and the Commanders. They played a great game, and that snapped a 12-game-winning-streak for Seattle. It was also Sam Darnold’s first full game of the season, and he was great most of the time, but his two interceptions cost his team enough (one was a pick six) to lose the game. The defense will tighten up and gain an extra (12th) man in Seattle against a Chargers team that just looks absolutely lost this season. Give me the Seahawks to start a new winning streak.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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