FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — After three games, analytics usually tell fans ‘you are what you are’ at this point and that is especially true for the Arkansas Razorbacks.
Of course, I was one of the fans bought in on the controllables and disciplined play throughout talkin’ season, but it hasn’t even been close. This Razorback football team isn’t close to that, or the one I predicted them to be in a preseason prediction piece (that is meant for fun instead of complete seriousness).
Arkansas has been downright awful at mostly everything, but have beaten teams like Tulsa even during its worst times. However, this Tulsa team coached by Tre Lamb is far better than the one Chad Morris coached against in one of his four wins as the Hogs coach in 2018-2019.
The Golden Hurricane are undefeated at 3-0, including a win over Oklahoma State and are hoping to snag another Power conference victory at Razorback Stadium exactly 50 years from the last time they pulled off the upset. That Tulsa team was talented, scoring upset victories over Virginia Tech and Louisville before receiving a bid in the Independence Bowl.
It’s shaping up to be a disappointing season in Fayetteville yet again with a possible loss this Saturday sinking Arkansas to depths it has never been before: 1-11.
Game Information
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Kickoff Time: 7 p.m. CT
Venue: Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Ark.
TV Channel: SEC Network+
Radio: Arkansas Razorbacks Sports Network
Series Record: Arkansas leads 55-16-3
Betting: Arkansas (-7.5), O/u: 50.5 total points (FanDuel)
DISCLAIMER: Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
What ESPN Thinks
Arkansas is the analytical home favorite in this one despite sitting 1-2 on the season and being blown out 88-27 in its previous two games against No. 2 Georgia and No. 20 Utah. The Razorbacks have a 54.2% chance of winning this game.
After losing last week, ESPN dropped the Razorbacks to No. 74 nationally in its Football Power Index ratings with a projected finish of 3-9 overall and gives them a 2.4% chance of reaching the six-win mark under first-year coach Ryan Silverfield.
If this game were to be played on a neutral field, Tulsa would actually be favored by six-tenths of a point.
ESPN FPI (SEC) Rankings
1. Texas
2. Georgia
3. Alabama
4. LSU
5. Tennessee
6. Texas A&M
7. Ole Miss
8. Oklahoma
9. Florida
10. Mississippi State
11. Auburn
12. South Carolina
13. Missouri
14. Kentucky
15. Vanderbilt
16. Arkansas
What Tulsa Coach Is Saying
“We’re going to everything we can to win this football game,” Lamb said. “Huge momentum game. You have a good showing over there, you play well, and your team believes you got a chance to be one of the better Group of Six teams in the country.
“A good Group of Six team wins this game. We gotta go lay it all out there. [Arkansas] has a chance to be a good football team. They’re not there yet, they’re figuring some things out. We ain’t there yet, either. We gotta humble ourselves and go try to get this done.”
Even with backup quarterback Dexter Williams II starting for the injured Baylor Hayes, Lamb remains confident in his team’s ability to pull off the upset and send the Razorbacks into a tailspin. Arkansas has the more talented, deeper and more expensive roster on paper, but things haven’t quite gone as hoped or how they hoped to look from a discipline standpoint.
Tulsa has played this game close through the years, but it’s been a long time since the last victory happened. But Lamb understands where Arkansas is a struggling Power Four team and he’s confident the Golden Hurricane can “cut loose” and make this a ballgame in the second half.
“We have played them close, traditionally,” Lamb said. “It’s always tight. It’s always low scoring. You look at the series history. I was studying it this morning and Tulsa’s won 16 times versus Arkansas, and it’s typically a close game. So, I want that trend to continue.
“I think if we can get this game to the second half with a chance to win it all the pressure really goes on them. And we can go in the stadium and cut it loose, and there’s not much pressure on us. It really isn’t. All the pressure’s on them. And that’s why these games are fun.”
By The Numbers
This would be the perfect week for KJ Jackson and Chris Marshall to establish their connection in a big way before a stretch of eight consecutive SEC games to close the season.
The Arkansas offense has struggled to find an identity through the first three games as the offensive line has failed to establish much of a push in the run game. As a result, Arkansas is among the bottom five nationally with just 77 yards per game on the ground.
|
Arkansas Offense |
Tulsa Defense |
|---|---|
|
Total Offense: 340 yards per game, No. 110 FBS |
Total Defense: 342.3 yards per game, No. 72 FBS |
|
Passing: 264.7 yards per game, No. 45 FBS |
Passing: 240 yards per game, No. 107 FBS |
|
Rushing: 75.3 yards per game, No. 135 FBS |
Rushing: 102.3 yards per game, No. 41 FBS |
|
Scoring: 19.3 points per game, No. 122 |
Scoring: 9 points per game, No. 7 FBS |
While the numbers favor Tulsa’s defense, the Razorbacks’ offense did manage to attack Georgia enough throughout the game to make it appear that progress is being made.
Defensively, Arkansas has failed to stop the run the past two weeks and sit dead last among Power Conference programs in run defense efficiency.
|
Arkansas Defense |
Tulsa Offense |
|---|---|
|
Total Defense: 352.7 yards per game, No. 82 FBS |
Total Offense: 392.7 yards per game, No. 77 FBS |
|
Passing: 208 yards per game, No. 74 FBS |
Passing: 172.3 yards per game, No. 112 FBS |
|
Rushing: 144.7 yards per game, No. 87 FBS |
Rushing: 220.3 yards per game, No. 32 FBS |
|
Scoring: 34 points per game, No. 122 FBS |
Scoring: 29.7 points per game, No. 79 FBS |
With Tulsa’s critical injury at quarterback, it makes it increasingly tougher to pick an upset here. If the Razorbacks can slow down the run game and continue to find success through the air, Arkansas should win this game, and manufacture some type of momentum going into its SEC gauntlet.
Prediction: Arkansas 38, Tulsa 13
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