A large rebel coalition launched coordinated offensives against Ethiopia’s central government, returning the country to all-out war after four years of simmering tensions.
Ethiopia, the world’s largest landlocked country, has been torn apart over the past decade by the divergent goals of ethnic political groups seeking to keep the country decentralized, and the centralizing crusade of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. This fissure triggered one of the 21st century’s bloodiest wars in 2020 when federal forces attempted to wrestle control of the large province of Tigray, leaving up to 600,000 dead by the time a ceasefire deal was signed two years later.
In the four years since the ceasefire, alliances have shifted, and an enduring peace has remained elusive. The federal government has been embroiled in fighting several insurgencies, including against some former allies.
On Sunday, seven different rebel groups announced the formation of an unprecedented alliance, the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, with the expressed purpose of removing the current government. The alliance includes ethnic militias representing the three most prominent ethnicities in Ethiopia, all of which have been able to hold their own against the government independently.
Forces from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front launched a massive, coordinated offensive on Wednesday, seizing three key airports and attacking federal troops across multiple provinces, in some places launching attacks alongside Amhara Fano rebels, according to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data. The two groups were sworn enemies during the 2020-22 Tigray war.
The TPLF government in Tigray said that a new war had begun.
“The Tigray Forces have been instructed to counter the attack and have entered a defensive war,” it said in a statement.
The Tigray army’s command center claimed the offensive was a response to an unprovoked offensive from federal forces, but most sources pin the initial offensive on Tigray.
Four sources speaking with Reuters confirmed fighting had broken out in Tigray, Afar, and Amhara, the centers of unrest in recent years. EPFAS itself claimed that all its members had carried out offensives in their sectors, though this wasn’t independently verified.
In a statement, U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia Ervin Massinga condemned the offensive, warning other rebel groups not to join.
“I am disappointed to see the leadership of the TPLF, that the United States sanctioned earlier this year, make the poor decision to launch a large-scale offensive today,” he said. “Rejecting dialogue sponsored by the [African Union] under President Obasanjo and engaging in an unwinnable fight does nothing for the people. Other armed groups would be wise to avoid this.”
“While the U.S. has tools to sanction additional leaders who try to push Ethiopia down the wrong path, I still believe a reasonable political dialogue is the right way to go,” Massinga added.
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The United States advised citizens not to travel to the Tigray or Afar regions, and banned government personnel from doing so.
The new war sends an already unstable region further into the abyss and has links to other regional wars, especially the Sudanese civil war. While the federal army is in a much better position compared to the rebels than it was in 2020, with the rebels lacking the heavy weaponry they had during the Tigray war, and federal forces possessing a monopoly on drones, several regional players serve as wild cards that could upset the balance. The geographic dispersion of the different rebel groups also means federal forces are spread thin across inhospitable terrain.
