A year ago, Jesse Minter’s Chargers defense managed to hold a Colts attack that was in peak form to just two plays over 20 yards.
The problem was that’s about all that went well, and Indianapolis had their way with Minter’s unit in a way few teams ever did in two years in LA. Minter, head coach of the Ravens who makes his debut in Indiana on Sunday, essentially stuck to his guns in that game – adhering to the nickel and dime coverages that have served him so well, adhering to zone concepts – and he got absolutely shredded for it.
The more defensive backs he had on the field (and his Ravens secondary is even more loaded and an even bigger part of his defensive fiber here), the worse it got. The Colts scored 38 points and killed him on third downs and did pretty much what they wanted, running or throwing the ball, against Minter’s shells and with the extra DBs on the field. There is quite a bit he needs to change for this debut, and the fact that his best defensive lineman, Nnamdi Madubuike (correction – his best defensive player) might be a stretch to play, only adds to the potential difficulty of the assignment.
“Everything that’s happened in the past is an opportunity to grow and learn and to take things from,” Minter said when asked about last October’s beatdown at his Monday press conference. “So, that’s great tape, obviously, for myself to look at — I’m the one that was running the defense in that game — and so there are a lot of things that we’re trying to look at and do.
“It is different. We have obviously different players and different pieces. But again, [I have] just a lot of respect for them and how they were rolling on offense, particularly the time we played them.”
Trust me, rewatching Minter’s Chargers press conference four days after this game (“We’re having open and honest conversations,” he said in the aftermath of that drilling) this was a performance by coaches and players alike that stuck with him. It suggests he may want to go about some things differently Sunday, even though obviously this is a different roster and a different circumstance (quarterback Daniel Jones is just back from Achilles surgery).
Minter played basically the second-lowest percentage of nickel snaps in this game as any all season, and his average percentage of dime, he still had all kinds of problems in those looks. He probably kind of saw it coming.
How Bad Was It On The Ground?
Minter’s defense is predicated on trying to stop the run while still putting a lid on the top of the offense and eliminating deep plays. How did it go stopping the run against the Colts, and powerful back Jonathan Taylor, when he had five or more defensive backs on the field?
Colts Rushing vs Chargers Nickel/Dime
IND: 12 rush – 86 yards – 3 TDs (Taylor: 9-64-3)
· LAC : -8.70 EPA (worst of season in those packages)
· LAC: 30.8% Success (worst of season)
· LAC: 58.3% 1st/Rush (worst of season)
· LAC: 4.0/carry before contact (2nd worst)
No Madubuike is a big problem. Remains to be seen how much guys like Broderick Washington, who took a haircut to stay here, and John Jenkins have left, even as space eaters. We don’t see a way around Calais Campbell having way more than a bit role in this meeting, on a 400-snap pitch count or not. And if linebacker Teddye Buchanan, on way back from an ACL tear, is out too, then all that pre-season Trenton Simpson hype will be put to an early test.
I wonder if Minter doesn’t use more heavy boxes than he normal prefers, with Jones just back from injury and perhaps not as athletic as normal and with top deep threat Alec Pierce just back form major ankle surgery, too.
What About Through The Air?
Minter was able to create some pressures but Jones made plays under duress, he didn’t get greedy at all, and routinely picked up moderate gains in the middle of the field. He took what was there, and they created chunk plays with elite tight end Tyler Warren feigning blocks and leaking out. Hybrid chess piece safety Derwin James was basically never used in man looks (we suspect that changes for Kyle Hamilton Sunday and it got ugly, quickly.
Colts Passing vs Chargers Nickel/Dime
· Jones: 20/27, 257 yds, 2 TD 0 INT
· LAC: 129.2 rating-worst (avg: 73.1)
· LAC: 9.8 Y/att – worst (avg: 6.5)
· LAC: 257 yds – worst (avg: 165)
Jones was 7/9 for 91 yards and two touchdowns on third and fourth down. The Colts had 14 first downs through the air! Yeah that’s the most the Chargers allowed. The Colts also added 142 YAC, the second most the Chargers allowed all year. Jones only had four attempts against man coverage – and especially if you don’t think he’s as much a threat to scramble just back from surgery – that should ramp up here, especially considering all the corners the Ravens have with a man background.
And man coverage goes with the blitz, and Minter did hold Jones to 3/11 passing when he brought five or more pass rushers, getting pressure on 56% of his blitzes. Minter isn’t one to bring big numbers, but he did rush six or more defenders three times in this game; he was successful twice and the other time resulted in a four-yard TD pass to Michael Pittman (now a Steeler) on fourth-and-two
I have a hard time believing Minter simply duplicates what didn’t work at all in this instance, even considering just how overwhelmingly successful it was most of the time. Of course, leaning into more big bodies up front – especially if there is no Madubuike – carries its own risks and the secondary is undoubtedly the strength of the team.
Cannot wait to see how the strategy unfolds on Sunday. Minter has been thinking about this since the day the schedule came out, no doubt. And I am sure he will have some new wrinkles.
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