SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee has been building something in Dallas that most of the country has not fully clocked yet: a program that reached the College Football Playoff in 2024 and returns its starting quarterback with a chip on his shoulder.
Now it travels into a building where the home team desperately needs a signature win to quiet a season already under a microscope. Rece Davis likes what Kevin Jennings and the Mustangs bring to Tallahassee for Florida State’s Labor Day night showcase.
Rece Davis picks SMU-FSU winner
Davis is taking SMU on the road against Florida State, calling the Mustangs the team best positioned in the ACC to challenge Miami for the conference. “I think if there’s anyone best positioned to challenge Miami, and I’m not sure that anyone is on that level, Virginia certainly looked good,” Davis said. “They’re very experienced, but I would probably say SMU is most likely to challenge them.”
Jennings returns for his senior season after throwing for 3,641 yards with 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 2025, numbers that helped push SMU to the College Football Playoff. Davis pointed directly to Jennings as the reason for his confidence. “They’ve got Kevin Jennings back, hopefully healthier this time,” Davis said. Jennings played through an ankle injury for stretches of last season.
Co-host Dan Wetzel picked SMU as well, framing Florida State’s season-opening win over New Mexico State as a warning sign rather than a source of confidence for the home team. “Florida State got a game under its belt. It defeated New Mexico State, but if you followed the general mood of Seminole Nation during or after that game, they were not reassured,” Wetzel said. Florida State won that game 34-17 as a 31.5-point favorite, and quarterback Ashton Daniels threw for just 202 yards.
Co-host Pete Thamel also sided with SMU, framing the game as a crossroads moment for Florida State and coach Mike Norvell. “This is a crossroads game for Florida State, for Mike Norvell, really for their football program, and you could even maybe say their institution,” Thamel said. “SMU is better because they’ve spent more. SMU has been aligned. SMU has seized this era of college football. Florida State has not.”
Florida State enters Labor Day with a program under scrutiny
Davis closed out the pick by leaning on Florida State’s recent history against power-conference competition. “Florida State is 4-17 in its last 21 games against Power Four opponents, 3-13 against the ACC,” Davis said, calling it the program’s worst two-year stretch in half a century. He also noted the spread sits at just a field goal, adding a note of caution to his own pick. “You know, they’re only favored by a field goal,” Davis said. “And a lot of times, as they say, somebody might know something.”
SMU enters the season ranked No. 19 in the preseason poll. At the same time, Florida State looks to bounce back from a rough two years under Norvell, which has him squarely on the hot seat entering Labor Day night. Kickoff from Doak Campbell Stadium is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
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