Inflation and invasion. Those were the two issues that propelled Donald Trump to victory in 2024. Now Congress is facing what is essentially its last chance to fulfill those election mandates after squandering its best political capital during the first year and a half of this term.
Yet as Republicans push their third and final party-line budget reconciliation bill, the priorities are once again random and disconnected from the two central campaign promises.
Republicans appear poised to end this Trump trifecta the same way they ended the last one: without enduring victories.
Just like the first two bills.
Truth is, neither reconciliation bill cut the deficit on net. Neither defunded sanctuary cities, birthright citizenship, amnesty programs, or the judicial review now hampering every facet of immigration enforcement.
The first bill — the one fueled by the greatest political capital Republicans had enjoyed in years — focused on a random assortment of tax provisions that failed to excite the country and likely added significantly to the deficit. It also contained more defense spending.
The second bill simply threw more money at the Department of Homeland Security, which, under current failed policies, will not change the dynamic of litigating every last illegal alien removal to death.
So what is in Reconciliation 3.0?
The bulk of it is $73 billion for the military, mainly for the Iran war, though it will likely include funding to rebuild Arab Gulf states.
So despite complaints that the GOP cannot move beyond its myopic focus on taxes and defense spending, 11 years into the MAGA movement, that is still all Trump and Republicans seem capable of producing: more tax cuts, more spending, and more money thrown at a wasteful Pentagon.
In fact, while this bill earmarks $73 billion for defense, Trump originally asked for $350 billion.
Let’s start with the military component.
If our military cannot keep the Strait of Hormuz open on a $1 trillion annual budget, then something is wrong with the weapons we are buying, the strategy we are pursuing, or the will to use the tools we already possess.
Republicans cannot continue mindlessly increasing the defense budget without auditing our strategic interests and determining whether the current procurement regime satisfies our needs.
Throwing another $100 billion or $200 billion at Boeing and General Dynamics will not change the dynamic.
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Last June, the House Oversight Committee’s Delivering on Government Efficiency Subcommittee held a roundtable highlighting a GAO report on procurement waste.
“DOD now plans to invest over $2.4 trillion in its costliest weapon programs,” the report found. “However, because the department remains alarmingly slow in delivering capabilities, these investments are at high risk of becoming obsolete before they even reach the field.”
So long as the defense industry knows congressional appropriations are effectively unlimited, it will continue gouging taxpayers for these weapons systems.
Meanwhile, Congress should be asking a basic question, regardless of one’s view of the decision to go to war with Iran: How do we still lack the leverage to keep shipping lanes open against an adversary that essentially lacks an air force and a functional navy?
And if we lack the weapons and strategy to protect shipping lanes against Iran, how do we plan to deter China from doing the same in the South China Sea after it has already built extensive military infrastructure on artificial islands?
It will not happen by throwing another $100 billion at the same system.
This bill will therefore accomplish what Republicans usually accomplish when in power: It will add to the debt.
We all lamented Bidenflation. But since the debt ceiling was lifted during last year’s budget reconciliation bill, the debt has increased by $3.2 trillion. The monthly tab for interest on the debt in June was greater than the cost of the military and roughly on par with Medicare spending.
Meanwhile, despite the Federal Reserve lowering the federal funds rate over the past two years, the 10-year Treasury remains near a 19-year high. That means debt maturing this year will roll over at much higher interest rates.
So we print more money to service more debt, which is why the M2 money supply just hit another record.
In the wake of that debt service, we will not see a long-term easing of inflation.
As for immigration, this bill does nothing about anchor babies, sanctuary judges, or sanctuary cities. It does nothing to defund foreign-worker programs fleecing American workers and college graduates.
Instead, it includes $10 billion to bribe states to deal with voter fraud, including the threat of noncitizens voting. But the only states likely to use the money properly are the states already combatting voter fraud.
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There is no point passing this provision without the legal enforcement of the SAVE Act. Frankly, there is little point passing the SAVE Act without fixing the antecedent problem: our immigration policies.
Then, of course, the bill contains a $12 billion bailout for farmers hurt by Trump’s other failed signature economic policy: tariffs.
But if this same Congress and White House continue pushing a farm bill that perpetuates the subsidy regime harming small farmers — and if they continue supporting endless rezoning of farmland for data centers — what is the point of throwing more good money after bad?
The lesson is obvious.
Republicans appear poised to end this Trump trifecta the same way they ended the last one: without enduring victories.
Sure, they passed Elizabeth Warren’s Section 8 bill. But they have not passed a single major provision that seriously addresses immigration or inflation.
They had three chances to do something transformational.
They struck out.
But fear not. In congressional baseball, there is always a fourth chance for voters they treat as suckers.
“We’re right now looking at a reconciliation 4.0 to do the things that are left out of this one,” a House Republican told Politico on Wednesday. Oh, joy!
