Prime Minister Mark Carney is jetting off Monday to the two-day NATO summit in Turkey’s capital city Ankara, where world leaders will seek to avoid diplomatic friction with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Massive hikes to military budgets are expected to feature prominently as NATO members remain under heavy U.S. pressure to spend much more on defence. But in the background, divisions remain over how much of a threat Russia poses and the chaotic foreign policy of the Trump administration.
Gaëlle Rivard Piché, the head of the Canadian defence think-tank CDA Institute, said this summit will be about alliance members proving their spending is on track and will result in stronger militaries.
“It’s going to be about showing that (we’ve put) our money where our mouth is. Beyond just announcing investments and moving money around, it’s actually using that money to acquire new capabilities,” she said.
In 2014, the same year that Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, alliance members agreed to meet a target of spending two per cent of national GDP on defence.
NATO says Canada, which had long struggled to reach two per cent, is finally meeting that target through tens of billions of dollars in new military spending. But two per cent is now the floor, not the ceiling.
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The July 7-8 NATO summit is the first since nearly all member states endorsed a bold pledge at The Hague last year to each spend five per cent of GDP on defence by 2035.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has said that while allies can celebrate the alliance reaching the two per cent target, they must now present “credible” plans to hit the higher benchmark.
At a talk put on by the Washington-based Atlantic Council think-tank last month, Rutte said the five per cent figure is “deeply rooted” in estimates of what the alliance needs to develop its capabilities.
“That (two per cent figure) was a bit plucked from the air,” he said.
The Carney government is expected to talk up its efforts to boost defence spending and investment in the defence sector. Government officials said at a background briefing on Friday that Canada projects its defence spending will hit 2.13 per cent of GDP for the 2026-2027 fiscal year, and five per cent by 2035.
The government has not publicly revealed how it plans to reach the 2035 target and has not officially booked it into the fiscal framework.
Kerry Buck, a senior fellow at the University of Ottawa and Canada’s former ambassador to NATO, said Canada goes into the summit in “fairly good order” on the accounting front — something that has seldom been the case in the past.
But since the 2025 summit, Trump has doubled down on actions that have shaken the alliance and widened the diplomatic divide.
On top of threatening to leave the alliance, he has mused about annexing Greenland. He launched a surprise war against Iran, then berated NATO allies for failing to help him. And the U.S. has also started a drawdown of American troops and capabilities in Europe.
The summit has been slimmed down to reduce the chances of friction over U.S. foreign and defence policy breaking out into the open.
“NATO has to paper over some issues that would probably be better addressed. It has to move to the lowest common denominator because the cost of drama is too high for the alliance right now,” Buck said.
“Is the pragmatic approach the right one to take? Absolutely. But what a pity, because the threat environment is worse than it has ever been.”
Former U.S. diplomat Brett Bruen said the alliance is making “significant progress” on ramping up military spending, “not least because of the threat Trump represents to global stability and security.”
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Still, Bruen said, “the vibe is going to be very awkward” and regardless of how countries act, “we’re likely to see a litany of complaints from Trump, and perhaps some threats as well as insults.”
“From a Canadian perspective, I’ll be watching to see if Carney can carve out an expanded role for himself because he certainly is one of those leaders within the alliance that has the potential to emerge as a centre of power,” he said.
In January, Carney delivered a speech to the global elite in Davos, Switzerland about middle powers banding together in the face of great power pressure. The speech won rave reviews from allies around the world, and rebukes from the Trump administration.
“I don’t necessarily want us to stand out,” Rivard Piché said. “There’s safety in numbers in the current environment.”
NATO allies are also expected to make a series of defence industrial announcements in the coming days for contracts worth tens of billions of dollars.
The prime minister is also expected to talk on Tuesday at a defence industry forum side event about financing defence capabilities.
Rivard Piché said she’s watching to see whether Canada reveals details about the planned new Defence, Security and Resilience Bank or any new contracts for Canadian companies under the SAFE program. Carney has publicly pushed for the defence bank.
Canada announced at the G7 Leaders’ Summit in Évian, France last month that tactical radio manufacturer Marconi Technologies is the first Canadian firm to land a contract under the SAFE defence procurement agreement Canada has signed with the European Union.
