Securing an Iran Deal Hinges on These Two Factors
The negotiations so far revolve around thorny nuclear issues and Israel’s campaign in Lebanon.
Against all odds, President Donald Trump may secure a comprehensive deal with Iran to address its nuclear program and ease bilateral tensions. The memorandum of understanding (MOU), already signed by both sides, allows for 60 days to finalize the details. Vice President J.D. Vance traveled to Switzerland this weekend for talks with Iranian officials and regional mediators, and news outlets report “constructive progress.”
Ultimately, the success of the negotiations hinges on two factors: Israel’s conduct in Lebanon and Washington’s willingness to drop its maximalist demands on Iran’s nuclear program.
Regarding the latter, Washington seeks a moratorium on Iran’s nuclear enrichment program and a commitment to dilute or remove Tehran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. What the final arrangement will look like isn’t clear, but the Trump administration has room for flexibility.
The Islamic Republic, in the MOU, reaffirmed that it will not pursue a nuclear weapon, and Washington should take that as a win. This marks, essentially, a return to the status quo ante, except this time Iran’s nuclear facilities have been significantly degraded by U.S.-Israeli strikes—a positive outcome to a conflict that was ill-conceived from the outset and launched without an exit plan.
The White House has agreed to terminate sanctions on Iran if a final deal is reached, and Iran hawks have voiced early concerns that the deal will not curb the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions, even as economic relief will enable the regime to rebuild its program. But Iranian nuclear ambitions are an issue that can only be managed, not solved. Eternal sanctions are not a sustainable replacement for a diplomatic solution, as we saw after Trump exited the previous Iran nuclear deal in 2018. The administration would do well to trade sanctions relief for mechanisms that help keep Iran’s nuclear program in a box.
No matter the outcome of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States, Israel’s continuation of its war in Lebanon risks putting the entire agreement in jeopardy. Israel has made it clear that it has no intention of ending its strikes in Lebanon, and it has, in fact, continued strikes there since the MOU was announced. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated last Monday that “the struggle has not ended” and that the IDF “will remain in [southern Lebanon] as long as required” regardless of U.S. negotiations with Iran.
Of course, Israel has its own agency, and in the end will do what it thinks is necessary for its own security. But Washington has leverage, and there is precedent for exerting it to rein in Israel. In 1981, after Israel bombed a nuclear reactor in Iraq, President Ronald Reagan paused a shipment of U.S. fighter jets. Again, during Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon, he paused a shipment of cluster shells. President George H.W. Bush paused a $10 billion loan to Israel due to its settlements in the West Bank.
Though the U.S. has been less willing to leverage its influence in recent years, it still has the power, and occasionally the willingness, to do so. In May 2024, the Biden administration paused a weapons shipment to Israel intended for an operation in Rafah, a city in southern Gaza, over concerns about civilian casualties. Similarly, Washington could now pause shipments of weapons that could be used for military operations in Lebanon.
Notably, the 10-year U.S.-Israel memorandum of understanding governing military assistance is set to expire in 2028. Washington should make clear that renewal is not automatic and that the terms for future support will reflect Israeli deference to U.S. interests in Lebanon and elsewhere.
Like Israel, the United States has sovereign interests of its own, and they do not include backing Israeli operations that directly undermine its diplomatic initiatives with Iran. Israel can decide for itself whether continued strikes in Lebanon are worth the cost of endangering its close and ongoing relationship with the United States. To steer Israel in the right direction, the Trump administration will need to highlight that risk by making credible the threat of curbing military assistance.
The Iran hawks, of course, will push back against any deal with Iran for fear that it legitimizes the Islamic Republic and provides economic relief to Israel’s main adversary in the region. But Washington’s stated strategic priority is to deter China and prevent a conflict that would dwarf this one in cost and consequence. The Iran War has undermined this American interest, leading to the diversion of an alarming number of resources to the Middle East, including critical air defense systems previously deployed to South Korea. A deal with Iran would be a welcome step, allowing the U.S. to correct course.
It is imperative that the United States approach this phase of negotiations with a plan that is grounded in reality. The administration has signaled some flexibility on nuclear issues, but it had done so last year, too, before shifting the goalposts and demanding full dismantlement of Tehran’s program. Similarly, the administration has expressed displeasure with Netanyahu’s campaign in Lebanon, but the blank-check approach to Israel limits U.S. influence over its Middle Eastern client.
The administration has time to address the challenges to U.S.–Iran diplomacy and end a war that has mostly served to emphasize the risks of American militarism in the Middle East. Now it is time for Washington to make a deal, get out of the region, and return its attention and resources to great power competition with China.
The post Securing an Iran Deal Hinges on These Two Factors appeared first on The American Conservative.
